This week is a critical one for the market, with important inflation data and interest rate decisions coming out on both sides of the Atlantic. Here’s a breakdown of expectations:
Wednesday: CPI inflation data will be published and this data will give an idea about the current inflation situation.
Thursday: PPI inflation and jobless claims data will be released along with earnings reports from Adobe and Kroger. The ECB will also make a monetary policy statement.
Friday: CPI data will be released, which measures price changes from the consumer perspective and could shed light on what the Fed intends to do in September and the rest of the year.
MULTIFACTORIAL ANALYSIS OF CRYPTO MARKET SENTIMENT
The market is cautious as investors balance fears of a possible U.S. recession and the possibility of a moon shot. There are also concerns that the Fed could fall behind as the jobs market cools.
POLITICAL RISK
Remembering that no one cares who is right or left. Our common point is which candidate the cryptocurrency will be beneficial or harmful to.
We know that Kamala is against BTC and if she wins it could be the end of Bitcoin since the cryptocurrency is tied to US finances, which causes a lot of instability in Bitcoin. Given this, at the request of Americans concerned about Bitcoin, Donald Trump debated with Kamala Harris about BTC on Tuesday. Hedge funds (an investment strategy that aims to protect the value of an asset against future variations by reducing financial market risks) are closing positions to prepare for volatility before the November 5 vote.
US DOLLAR FUTURES INDEX
The US Dollar Index is trading at the time of writing around 101.622 and has been declining recently, but is a neutral fear and greed index. The price has fallen below the 102.00 support level, indicating a bearish trend.
US INFLATION DATA
In early trading on Tuesday, the dollar was steady, with the Japanese yen pulling back slightly from its one-month peak. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation data to gauge a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its Sept. 17-18 policy meeting.
A recent jobs report delivered mixed results, leaving uncertainty over whether the Fed will opt for a standard 25 basis point cut or a more significant 50 basis point reduction.
Expectations for Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price index (CPI) are high, with forecasts suggesting a 0.2% month-on-month increase for August, mirroring July’s increase. CPI data is now a focal point for market participants seeking insights into the pace of the Fed’s rate cuts, especially after nonfarm payrolls numbers failed to strongly support the case for a 50 basis point cut.
Markets are currently fully pricing in a 25 basis point cut, with a 30% chance of a 50 basis point reduction, down from the 50% probability seen last Friday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Any weaker-than-expected CPI report could bolster the likelihood of a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, while a flat report could leave the debate between a 25 and 50 basis point cut unresolved.
BTC FIBONACCI SUCCESSION
BTC Bear can reach 0.786 and 0.618. Remembering that this drop will not mean anything in the face of the 69k bullish.
On Sunday, late at night, the whales closed their shorts and went long, already predicting today's drop. If it weren't for that, BTC would be at 49k. One of the whales reported that on Monday they would force BTC to 60k, and another whale said that after the FED meeting they would force it to 72k in the short term.
I can only say that this bullish move from approximately 52k to 69k has a percentage of 31.44%, so any other cryptocurrency that comes in and is more influenced by BTC than ETH can go up 100% or more. There are cryptocurrencies that can go up between 242.77% and 491.51%.
Finally, if you don't invest in BTC and want to get into another cryptocurrency, you should study the project, evaluate the market capitalization, volume, movement and how much percentage it has increased this year or get into the cryptocurrencies that whales are investing in.
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