The U.S. CPI for August will be released tonight. What do you think of Bitcoin’s market outlook?
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August will be released at 20:30 today (9/11). It is the last important economic data before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The much-anticipated presidential candidate debate between Trump and Harris , was also held earlier.
Two major pieces of news are affecting the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is back up to $58,000 again this morning and is back down to around $56,800 at the time of writing. As the date of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision (FOMC) approaches, will Bitcoin rise or fall?
10x Research: Bitcoin could fall to 45,000
Cryptocurrency research firm 10x Research recently issued a warning, predicting that Bitcoin could plummet to $45,000. The agency noted that Bitcoin ETF investors currently face losses of approximately $2 billion and market uncertainty is high.
The current major macro uncertainties include:
FOMC meeting on September 17-18
November U.S. presidential election results
According to CME Group FedWatch data, the market generally predicts that the Federal Reserve will announce an interest rate cut of 1% in September, but there are still variables in the direction of interest rate policy. While interest rate cuts are generally positive for risk assets, they have historically been followed by recession fears, leading to market weakness.
In addition, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced serious outflows, with a net outflow of US$1.2 billion in the past eight days, the largest weekly net outflow since its listing.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, also pointed out that the number of active Bitcoin addresses plummeted from 1.2 million in November 2023 to about 600,000 in September 2024, reflecting the deterioration of investor sentiment.
QCP Capital’s take
Cryptocurrency trading firm QCP Capital also believes that macroeconomic uncertainty dominates the cryptocurrency market.
QCP Capital noted that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the MSCI World Equity Index hit 0.6, near a two-year high. The options market predicts that Bitcoin volatility may reach 3.3% in the next 24 hours.
The agency also pointed out that during the current U.S. election, Bitcoin had many "Trump trades," which fluctuated following Trump's polls and political speeches. However, if He Jinli takes a positive attitude towards cryptocurrency during the election, it may It will bring unexpected surprises.
Market participants remain cautious
Market participants remain cautious about Bitcoin's short-term trend. Analyst Skew noted that while the daily chart close was good, more confirmation is needed. The first bullish signal would be a resumption of the previous low of $57,400, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) needing to hold above 50.
Source: Cointelegraph Bitcoin daily trend analysis
Trader Crypto Chase said that the current market lacks the motivation to continue rising and more evidence is needed to establish that the bull market trend is still there.
Notably, $4.1 trillion was wiped off global stock market value last week, the biggest drop in two years. In such a volatile environment, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable, rising 3.7% over the past week.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. The analysts’ views are for reference only. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
