In the most recent rate cut cycle, Bitcoin fell directly from around 13,000 in July 2019 to 3,800 on March 12, 2020. That is to say, after the rate cut, although the decline was not long, the magnitude was still very scary. Even if March 12 was due to various special reasons and was rare in a century, a 50% drop was very natural and not extreme.
If the US economy is in recession in Q1-Q2 next year, there will be a golden pit (the last drop, similar to the last drop of March 12), and then the money will be released immediately. The real crazy bull market like that of 21 years (please note the wording, I wrote a crazy bull market similar to that of 21 years) will indeed be after the second half of the year.
Do you remember March 12 of 2020? At that time, the money was released after March 12, and then the real bull market did not appear until Q4, but from March to October of 2020, it was a fluctuating rise.
Now Bitcoin already has a spot ETF, and the total holdings have reached more than 16 billion US dollars, which is very critical to the stability of Bitcoin. In other words, it will not fluctuate as much as before. It is probably not rational to think that Bitcoin will fall to 10,000 or 20,000, but it is worth waiting for it to fall below 50,000.
