Today is Tuesday, September 10, 2024. After the opening of the U.S. stock market yesterday, Bitcoin fell back from 55,600 to around 54,800, and then began to rebound, reaching a high of around 58,100 U.S. dollars, an increase of 3,000 points, and then began to fall back, with a low of around 56,400 U.S. dollars. As of now, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated slightly around 57,000 U.S. dollars. Judging from the current trend, Bitcoin has shown signs of reversing from the downward trend last week. I personally think that the probability of Bitcoin falling below 52,500 U.S. dollars this week is very low, unless there is a very bad news in the market. At present, the support level of Bitcoin can focus on 56,100 in the short term. If it stands firm, it will continue to rise. If it falls below, it will continue to enter the consolidation range. The pressure level can focus on 58,000 U.S. dollars in the short term.
Currently, Ethereum is mainly linked to the trend of Bitcoin. Compared with Bitcoin, it is still at a disadvantage. Since Ethereum Cancun was upgraded to POS, it can be said that it has been showing a relatively weak trend, so much so that many people are beginning to be pessimistic about it.
As for the reasons, I personally have three main opinions.
1. The competitor SOL is too strong. It is not because the SOL chain itself is strong, but because the dealer behind SOL is very powerful. SOL focuses on being close to the people in this round, and mainly relies on local dogs to support the activity on the chain. In fact, it is not very high-end or popular, but it relies on pulling the price to attract users.
2. Ethereum’s last bull market surged due to decentralized finance (DEFI, pledge pressure, lending) and on-chain leverage. However, this theory was manipulated by regulators, and the high leverage on the chain generated profits but also brought about huge bubbles. The most important thing to survive was to cut off the arm. ETH relied on continuous innovation before, but this round of innovation has stopped except for the switch to POS.
3. After the ETF is approved, there is a potential sell-off of Grayscale. If I were a market maker, I would not pull up the market at this stage.
So how can we determine when Ethereum will be able to develop an independent trend?
There are four cases:
1. Bitcoin ETF funds have entered a sluggish stage. Large funds have nothing to speculate on, so they can only turn to Ethereum, because other targets cannot accommodate too much funds for the time being.
2. Ethereum’s ETF application is approved, which is equivalent to the approval of Bitcoin’s ETF (already happened)
3. Ethereum will conduct a wave of super liquidation to clear out the leveraged funds that are currently making up for the huge increase in Ethereum prices;
4. A phenomenal track suddenly emerged in the Ethereum ecosystem, similar to the DEFI, NFT, staking, and reception tracks during the previous bull market.
If two of the above four situations occur, it means that the independent market of Ethereum has arrived. Although there are many people who are not optimistic about Ethereum in the short term, in the long run, I think it will not be bad, especially in 25 years, the probability of reaching more than 8,000 US dollars is very high!
Next, focus on the news:
1. There will be a debate between Trump and Harris at 9 am tomorrow. Trump is a supporter of cryptocurrency, while Harris is an opponent of cryptocurrency.
2. The second is the CPI data to be released at 20:30 tomorrow night, which will also be the last relatively important data before the interest rate cut.
3. Pay close attention to the interest rate decision on the 19th
