Is the four-year cycle driven by Bitcoin halving still effective?
Looking back at the previous three crypto cycles: the top of the first cycle: December 2013; the top of the second cycle: December 2017; the top of the third cycle: November 2021... In the previous three Cycle, Bitcoin strictly follows a four-year cycle and repeats itself.
Moreover, the halving time is more than 500 days from the bottom and the top of Bitcoin, and the last 5 times have worked. For example, the time between this halving time and the lowest point of this cycle is 517 days.
However, as Bitcoin has fallen to $52,000 recently, market sentiment has been low, and some practitioners believe that Bitcoin will break the four-year cycle. Reasons include but are not limited to:
Before this halving cycle, the price of Bitcoin broke through to a record high. Historically, Bitcoin only breaks through all-time highs after halving (Anomaly 1)
Four months after all previous halvings, Bitcoin performed the worst in this cycle (Anomaly 2)
The halving has a large impact in the early stage, and the impact becomes weaker as it goes on. (internal cause)
External overall economic events have gradually increased their influence on Bitcoin and gradually dominated Bitcoin (external factors)
Due to internal and external factors, as well as the occurrence of multiple abnormal phenomena, practitioners have become deeply suspicious of the four-year cycle of Bitcoin after the halving.
However, the above reasons are not entirely tenable. Some of the reasons instead prove the validity of the four-year encryption cycle rule.
From the perspective of phenomena, neither Phenomenon 1 nor Phenomenon 2 are decisive phenomena.
Anomaly 1. The reason why Bitcoin broke through the all-time high before the halving was driven by events such as Bitcoin ETF and the market’s expectations for Bitcoin before the halving.
Abnormal Phenomenon 2: Due to the excessive increase in Bitcoin before, it overdrawn the future, and the recent decline has just returned to the normal trend.
More noteworthy are three other phenomena:
Phenomenon 1: Bitcoin reaches its peak in the last cycle
Why does it still follow the four-year cycle driven by the Bitcoin halving even if it encounters the “519 Crash” and the “NFT Bull Market”?
The "May 19 Crash" that occurred due to policy reasons in 2021 did not cause Bitcoin to directly enter a bear market, but reached its peak again in November.
Six months after Bitcoin peaked in November, NFT prices have continued to rise for six months. This means: Although Web3 is still very hot and Web3 applications are still in a bull market, Bitcoin has already entered a bear market for half a year.
These two major anomalies still fail to change the four-year cycle pattern of Bitcoin.
Phenomenon 2: The rule that "a bear market lasts only one year" has not been broken in this cycle.
The lowest point of this cycle is one year away from the highest point of Bitcoin’s previous cycle.
Phenomenon 3: The halving time is more than 500 days from the bottom and top of Bitcoin, and it has worked for the last 5 times.
The halving time is more than 500 days from Bitcoin’s bottom and top, and this pattern has not been broken since 2015, including the most recent bottom time.
The first halving took place on November 28, 2012. One year later, on December 5, 2013, the bull market ended.
The second halving is on July 9, 2016. A year and 3 months later, in December 2017 the bull market ended. It bottomed 547 days before the halving and peaked 518 days after the halving.
The third halving is on May 11, 2020. One year and six months later, the November 2021 bull market ended. It bottomed 517 days before the halving and peaked 549 days after the halving.
The fourth halving is in April 2024. Bitcoin bottoms 517 days before 2024 halving.
…….
The Bitcoin halving still dominates the crypto cycle, and external factors often revolve around internal factors. When external factors temporarily deviate from the trend, internal factors will always pull Bitcoin back.
After Bitcoin’s halving, the time it takes to break through the previous high is getting longer and longer. According to normal time, Bitcoin should not reach the price of Bitcoin’s last cycle peak, which was $68,000, by the end of 2024. However, due to events involving the U.S. Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin exceeded $68,000 ahead of schedule.
Institutions on Wall Street in the United States took advantage of the impact of the halving and passed the ETF in January before the April halving, overdrafting the benefits of the reduced inflation rate and rising price of Bitcoin after the halving.
There is an inaccurate statement: ETFs were the main reason for Bitcoin’s rise in the first half of the year. To be precise, the adoption of the U.S. Bitcoin ETF in line with the halving rule was the main reason for the sharp rise in Bitcoin in the first half of the year.
Four months after this round of halving, Bitcoin performed poorly, which was also due to internal factors (halving) at work.
External factors (ETFs) often revolve around internal factors (halving). When external factors temporarily deviate from the trend (price is too high), internal factors will always bring Bitcoin back on track.
According to the above, what will happen if the four-year cycle law still works?
Bitcoin reached its all-time high around December 2025. (The sources of this number are: 1: Bitcoin reaches its peak every four years; 2: According to the law of Phenomenon 3, the bull market after Bitcoin halving is getting longer and longer, reaching its peak one year and nine months after the halving .)
Bitcoin’s price peaked as low as around $110,000. (The most conservative figure calculated by ChatGPT based on the lowest and highest points over the years)
The main narrative of this cycle has not emerged yet, which is normal.
Just like the explosion of NFT, the main narrative of the last cycle, it is less than half a year before the end of the Bitcoin bull market. One of the earliest NFT avatars, BAYC, was born in May 2021, only 6 months before the peak of the bull market.
A more counter-intuitive event is: Azuki, which was born in January 2022, was launched in the second month of the bear market, and StepN, which has become popular across the entire network since then, has just received financing at this time.
When STEPN and NFT were at their hottest, Bitcoin had already halved, and half of the bear market had quietly passed.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reprinted with permission from: "Foresight News"
Original author: Zhou Zhou, Foresight News
