Before going to bed last night, I was still worried about the weak rebound of Bitcoin over the weekend, and the future trend might not be optimistic. Unexpectedly, in the second half of the night, Bitcoin jumped from below $54,000 to above $55,000 in an instant, rekindling the hopes of bulls.

Today is Monday (September 9), and the opening of the U.S. stock market tonight will determine whether Bitcoin has truly bottomed out!

If the U.S. stock market rises, Bitcoin may remain stable and not fall; but if the U.S. stock market falls, Bitcoin may not be able to escape the downward fate.

Poor employment data released by the United States last week intensified investors' concerns about an economic recession, and Bitcoin came under pressure, falling to $53,000 on the 7th.

However, after 6 a.m. this morning, Bitcoin began to rebound from $54,400. As of the time of writing, it reached a high of $55,096, an increase of 1.72% in 24 hours.

Today is September 9, and if Bitcoin falls below $52,000 on a large volume, the situation will become dangerous. However, the weekly line is still stable around $54,000, which shows that the support of the bulls is still strong.

Many people in the market are bearish on the possibility of Bitcoin falling below $45,000, which reminds me of the situation in September-October 2023. At that time, everyone was also expecting a second bottom to $19,000, but in the end it ushered in a crazy rise.

Although history will not repeat itself completely, similar situations are often surprising. The current market panic is high, no one dares to touch the altcoin, and long positions continue to be liquidated in large amounts. These signs all indicate that the market may be brewing a new round of rise.

Therefore, for those investors who want to buy at the bottom, $54,000 is a good entry opportunity. Altcoins have already pulled back sharply, and some small-scale layouts at this stage may bring great returns.

This week is crucial. Despite last week’s poor weekly close, the market still managed to hold $54,000, so there is still much to look forward to in mid-September.

The market is in a dual game of recession expectations and interest rate cut expectations. Although the economy may not actually fall into recession, market sentiment is crucial.

To reverse the current downturn, good news is needed to stabilize sentiment until the interest rate cut is implemented in September. In fact, the market has already been brewing a script for interest rate cuts:

Scenario 1: The Fed announced a rate cut, and Bitcoin continued to rise until September 19, when it saw a sharp rise, and then began to pull back. However, the current trend is clearly not this scenario.

Scenario 2: Bitcoin continued to fall before the interest rate cut, until the rate cut took effect on September 19, ending the decline, and then started to rebound, driving a wave of market trends.

The current trend is very close to Scenario 2. In the 10 days from August 25 to September 6, Bitcoin fell from $65,000 to $52,500, breaking out of a clear downward trend before the rate cut.

We are now in the middle of this scenario, with positive unemployment data failing to stop the decline as the market is developing according to the logic of the decline before the rate cut.

The next critical period is from September 9 to September 19, and the market expects that the market will continue to fall during this period. However, once the interest rate cut is implemented on September 19, the decline will come to an end and a rebound will follow. It is expected to rebound sharply at the end of the month and surge in October.

It is generally believed that the positive impact of interest rate cuts will lead to increases, but the market often does the opposite.

Many people will fall into despair when the market plummets before the rate cut, but the decline will only end as long as we can survive the 10 days from September 9 to September 19.

A similar situation has already happened in 2023: the super positive news of BlackRock's application for ETF in June caused Bitcoin to soar from US$25,000 to US$31,800 within 48 hours, but in August, when everyone was optimistic about BlackRock and betting on the bull market, Bitcoin plummeted from US$30,200 to US$24,500 in just 48 hours, and many 5x contract long orders were completely washed out.

Bitcoin then repeatedly bottomed out at $24,500, completely washing out the bullish sentiment. The repeated drama in the market is precisely what is most anti-human about it.

The market in September this year is playing out a similar "interest rate cut trap" scenario as in previous years. Everyone expected that the interest rate cut would bring benefits, but the market did the opposite. After Powell's interest rate cut speech on August 24, Bitcoin rose sharply to $65,000, but the interest rate cut trap was quietly activated.

Next, between August 25 and 30, Bitcoin plunged from $65,000 to $57,800, hitting the first wave. It then rebounded to $61,100, luring more investors to buy, and then maliciously dumped the market again. In the first week of September, it fell all the way from $60,000 to $52,500. The process was repetitive and cruel, and the market fell into a deep "interest rate cut trap."

Today is September 9th, and there are still 10 days left. Bitcoin may continue to adjust until the interest rate cut is implemented at 2 am on September 19th, when the "interest rate cut trap" should end. Then, the market is expected to usher in a strong rebound at the end of September.

Looking ahead to October, as the election approaches, the effect of the September rate cut will gradually be digested. By then, the market will react based on new expectations, and the policy propositions of the two parties in particular will become the focus.

On November 5, the election results were announced. No matter who is elected, there may be fiscal stimulus policies. Although specific measures have not yet been implemented, the emotional push cannot be ignored, and the market may be in turmoil again. In particular, if Trump is elected, his friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies may further promote the rise of BTC.

In December, it is worth looking forward to the new FASB regulations which will officially take effect on December 15. This positive factor is comparable to the influence of BTC spot ETF.

Looking ahead to January 2025, when the new president officially takes office, the policy sentiment of November and December is bound to continue.

In February, the focus will shift to economic data such as GDP, unemployment rate and inflation. Because the only uncertainty is the risk of economic recession. If a recession occurs, the risk asset market will inevitably panic and pull back, followed by a new round of monetary easing, and the market may usher in a violent bull market!

Expectations of a Fed rate cut shake the market!

New York Fed President Williams revealed that the interest rate cut process is about to start, but the specific extent of the cut has not yet been determined.

Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller said that if conditions are right, he would support an early rate cut and, if necessary, a larger rate cut.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee pointed out that the consensus within the Fed is that there will be multiple interest rate cuts, and the path of interest rate cuts in the next few months is the key.

The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. According to CME's "Fed Watch", after the Bureau of Labor Statistics released unemployment data last week, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 70%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 30%.

Now, is the market bottoming out or will it continue to fall? In fact, there is no need to speculate. Wait until September 18, when the Fed's decision will make things clear. During this period, it is recommended to wait and see, operate cautiously, and do some short-term trading at most. The market in September will be mainly guided by news and policies!

Despite the relatively flat weekend and Bitcoin trading volume shrinking to bear market levels, the market remains confident. Although a second bottom may occur in the short term, from the perspective of the altcoin market, they did not follow Bitcoin's sharp decline, but instead showed a trend of sideways consolidation or a slight rise.

In summary, as long as Bitcoin stabilizes after hitting the bottom for the second time, altcoins are expected to explode. It is recommended to focus on the top DeFi projects. Once the opportunity comes, there may be a strong rise!

This week's major economic events

1. On September 10 (Tuesday), Apple will hold a new product launch conference, which may cause fluctuations in the U.S. stock market.

2. On Thursday, September 12, the United States will release the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The market expects the CPI year-on-year growth rate to drop slightly to 2.6%, and the core CPI year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain the same as in July at 3.2%.

3. On the same day, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its interest rate decision, and the market generally expects a one-basis rate cut.

The best response strategy for altcoins in the current cryptocurrency circle!

As the BTC and ETH markets continue to fluctuate, many retail investors and veterans are aware that the market has not yet stabilized and the overall trend is still on a downward trend. Altcoins are facing the dual challenges of poor liquidity, token unlocking, and increased selling pressure.

So, what should we do in this situation? Here are some suggestions for fans to refer to.

Short-term operation guide: How to manage your USDT in the current market?

1. Light-weight swing trading: If you have USDT in your hands, you can try to use light-weight swing trading. Pay attention to large public chains, or phenomenal Meme currencies like DOGE and SHIB, or other high-quality projects that you are optimistic about. Adopt a "do it and run" strategy, lock in profits and keep USDT, and focus on short-term operations!

2. Wait and see, and follow the trend: If you prefer to operate prudently, you can choose to continue to wait and see. Wait until ETH and BTC stabilize, especially when Bitcoin breaks through $60,000, and then consider entering the market to follow the trend. By then, altcoins will also have a certain increase, and this operation method is relatively safer. (Although the price of altcoins is currently low, the market has not stabilized yet, and there are still risks.)

The secret of copycat sentiment: the current market sentiment spring and future trends

In the current market, emotions are like a big spring. The more they are compressed, the more violent the rebound will be in the future. This is the fundamental reason why I am full of confidence in the future market.

At the same time, the number of short orders accumulated in the contract market has far exceeded the number of long orders, which means that the depressed sentiment in the market is gradually accumulating and will bring about a strong rebound when it breaks out.

I compare the cryptocurrency world to a chicken farming ecosystem. Retail investors are like chickens, market makers are farmers, and exchanges are chicken farms.

Now, the strategy of the market makers is to push retail investors into the air force market through strong short squeeze sentiment, forcing you to open shorts, short positions, and stop losses. As a result, more than 80% of people are forced to do so, and then the market makers will start to explode shorts and harvest those short orders.

Whether it is a bull market or a bear market, the market always goes back and forth, and the bankers realize profits through continuous washing and rebounding.

The entire market is like being controlled by an invisible big hand, always moving in the direction of least resistance, with no exceptions.

The recent market cleansing is the most intense this year. Regardless of long-term or short-term, at least 90% of people are locked in, and the contract market is like a meat grinder. Obviously, the dog dealer is planning a big game behind the scenes and is preparing to make a big move.

There is no shortage of opportunities for a surge in the cryptocurrency market. The key is whether you still hold USDT when the opportunity comes. Treat the market rationally and reject FOMO!

No matter how the market plays tricks on you, don't give up easily or sell at a loss. Only by investing 90% of your funds in mainstream high-quality spot products can you cope with market fluctuations. There will always be a time to ride the wind and waves, and set sail to cross the vast ocean!

Although the September curse seems to have come true, I am still optimistic about the bull market in 2025. The current recession and FUD hype are just a wash before the bull market.

The Fed's previous meetings showed that it was cautious about cutting interest rates, and it is expected that future rate cuts will be gradual to avoid excessive intervention. This preventive and proactive rate cut is very healthy.

Hold the spot for a long time, continue to invest, and wait for the bull market to come!

This is the end of this article for now; if you want to know more about exciting events in the circle, you can join the community for consultation!