On Wednesday, the U.S. released the August CPI (expected value 2.6%), which is the "last piece of the puzzle" before the Fed's September interest rate meeting. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points in the early morning of the 19th. Fed President Waller said that the "time has come" to start a series of interest rate cuts this month. The August (non-farm) employment report and other data continue to cool down. The series of data show that the Fed no longer needs to wait patiently, but needs to take action.

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Fox: U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer listed the priorities for cross-party legislation in the remaining months of Congress. Cryptocurrency legislation was not included, and artificial intelligence was listed as one of the priorities. This is a marked departure from Schumer’s previous statements at a Crypto4Harris town hall meeting, where he had insisted that cryptocurrency legislation would be an urgent priority. The Consumer Finance Institute (CFI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported data that even after the bear market ended, cryptocurrency ownership did not increase significantly. In October 2023, 17.1% of respondents owned cryptocurrency, and the proportion dropped in January 2024. to 15.4%. Before and after the halving in March and April, the holding rates were 16.1% and 14.7% respectively. In May, the Federal Reserve reported that the number of people in the United States who owned or used cryptocurrencies was about 18 million, based on a survey of more than 11,000 respondents. Tether invests $100 million in Latin American agricultural giant Adecoagro. According to IntoTheBlock data, addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC hold 20.3% of the circulating supply of BTC, equivalent to 4.01 million BTC, an increase of 5% from 3.82 million BTC six months ago, showing the trend of BTC whale addresses increasing their holdings in the past six months. According to HODL15Capital data, one address (Mr.500) increased its holdings of 500 BTC on August 26, and continued to increase its holdings by 1,000 BTC every day. As of September 7, this address held 12,500 BTC, which is approximately US$677 million. Social Capital Markets research data shows that since 2017, lobbying expenditures in the U.S. cryptocurrency industry have increased by 1,386% in the past seven years, from US$80,000 in 2017 to US$2.9 million in 2023, led by CB, Bn and Bailey Morality is the main priority. Presto Research analysts Peter Chung and MinJung reported that macro factors have dominated BTC price discussions recently, ignoring "cybersecurity", one of the key fundamentals supporting the value of BTC. The computing power has reached a record high of 679 EH/S. If this If this trend continues, then BTC currently appears to be severely undervalued. Media reports say the price could drop below $50,000 in the coming days.

Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, said that BTC could easily reach $100,000, supported by the US debt of $3 billion per day, BTC strategic reserves, US pension allocations and corporate purchases. The US government's daily debt interest expenditure is $3 billion, which has doubled in just 2.5 years. "Crisis" is an understatement. Last week, the US BTC spot ETF had a cumulative net outflow of $706.1 million; last week, the US ETH spot ETF had a cumulative net outflow of $91.1 million. Since its launch, the US ETH spot ETF has accumulated a net outflow of $568.5 million, of which Grayscale ETHE had a net outflow of $2.6713 billion, BlackRock ETHA had a net inflow of $1.0173 billion, and Fidelity FETH had a net inflow of $397.8 million. Since its launch, the US BTC spot ETF has accumulated a net inflow of US$16.897 billion, of which Grayscale GBTC has a net outflow of US$20.012 billion, BlackRock IBIT has a net inflow of US$20.917 billion, and Fidelity FBTC has a net inflow of US$9.424 billion. On Wednesday, the US announced the annual inflation CPI rate in August, with the previous value of 2.9% and the expected value of 2.6%; the previous value of CPI core was 3.2%, and the expected value was 3.2%. Last Friday, the US announced employment data, with 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, lower than the expected value of 160,000 and higher than the previous value of 89,000. The US unemployment rate in August was 4.2%, in line with the expected value of 4.2% and lower than the previous value of 4.3%. The three-month average of non-farm employment has dropped to the lowest level since mid-2020. The unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2%, the first decline in five months. US Treasury Secretary Yellen argued that the economy is in a "deep recovery" and is in a soft landing, not a recession. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 70%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 30%. Fed's Williams: Ready to start the process of rate cuts, not yet ready for how big the first rate cut should be. Fed's Waller: Support pre-emptive rate cuts if appropriate, and support larger rate cuts if necessary. Fed's Goolsbee: The general consensus within the Fed is that there will be multiple rate cuts, and the path of rate cuts in the next few months is more important. Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, said that the current monetary policy is restrictive, the downside risks to employment are increasing, and the upside risks to inflation are weakening, so it is believed that the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting is the right approach.

Bank of America: It is expected that starting from September 2024, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each meeting, and will slow down to 25 basis points per quarter by March 2025. The U.S. will release inflation CPI on Wednesday, which is the last important data before the interest rate meeting and is likely to be the decisive factor. The Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision in the early morning of the 19th, cutting interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Julien Bittel, director of GlobalMacro Investor, said: The price of BTC has been in a consolidation phase this year, and the structure looks strikingly similar to that of 2019. So far, this consolidation has lasted for 175 days. When this potential turning point is reached, everyone is watching whether BTC's reaction "follows the script of 2019". If the current market trend remains unchanged, some major upward momentum may be seen. The U.S. dollar index fell to 100.54 last Friday, close to this year's low of 100.51, and the U.S. 2-year Treasury bond and 10-year Treasury bond both fell below 3.7% (the highs of this cycle are both around 5%). The strength of the U.S. dollar index and U.S. bonds depends to a certain extent on the interest rate of the Federal Reserve. If the interest rate potentially falls, the former will also be weak. In the past year, a common component of the bullish argument is that once the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, trillions of dollars of idle funds such as money market funds will flow into the stock market (including the currency market, etc.). After the Fed cuts interest rates, U.S. dollar liquidity will flow into other markets. Bitcoin is approaching this round of interest rate cuts. Bitcoin, which was previously weak, has no way to avoid it. Facing the Fed's interest rate cuts, there are not many reasons for bearish views, and it is close to the traditional bull market cycle. Before the market opened on Monday, Nasdaq futures rose 0.8%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.7%, and Bitcoin rose 2%. Bitcoin is fighting for its reputation. #美国经济软着陆？ #BTC走势分析 #美国8月非农就业人数不及预期