[Sam’s Rule Shows U.S. Recession Still Possible, But Cryptocurrencies May See a Bullish Reversal]
The Sahm Rule, as an indicator of economic recession, shows rising downside risks to the U.S. economy, further exacerbating bearish sentiment in the crypto market. According to analysis by ETC Group, the Sahm Rule has been triggered and indicators show that the risk of a U.S. recession has risen to 0.53 in July 2024, suggesting that a recession may be coming.
At the same time, the crypto market is also under pressure, with Bitcoin on-chain data continuing to show negative trends. Last week, Bitcoin spot exchanges saw a net sale of approximately $606 million, and whales also transferred a net 9,477 Bitcoins to exchanges, increasing selling pressure. Bitcoin balances on exchanges continue to increase, reflecting the bearish sentiment in the market.
ETC Group’s Crypto Asset Sentiment Index shows that market sentiment remains pessimistic with only 4 out of 15 indicators showing positive signs. However, some analysts believe this could signal a tactical bottom for Bitcoin, signaling the possibility of a bull market resumption, especially in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy easing. Although the bearish trend continues, there is still the possibility of a market reversal.
