In September, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical stage, with a drop of almost 30% since its peak in March 2024. The next week, in particular, brings a series of events that can significantly influence the market, both in the crypto segment and in traditional markets. Let's analyze these events, their relevance, and how they can impact market behavior.

September 10: Trump-Harris Debate

The upcoming presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is an event that could generate volatility in the cryptocurrency market. Both candidates have expressed strong positions on crypto assets. Trump, who has been critical of cryptocurrencies, has recently adopted a more positive stance, while Harris has connections with prominent figures in the technology industry, which could suggest a bias towards innovation and, possibly, the crypto market.

Potential Impact:

  • Bullish Trend: If both candidates mention plans that favor the development of the cryptocurrency market, there could be an injection of optimism.

  • Downtrend: On the other hand, if there is uncertainty about how regulations will be handled, the market may react negatively.

September 11: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report

The August CPI is a key indicator of inflation. The July report showed an increase of 0.2% on the month and 2.9% on the year. The expectation for August is a similar or slightly higher increase. If the inflation data comes in higher than expected, it could increase the chances of more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, negatively impacting the cryptocurrency market, which is sensitive to interest rates.

Potential Impact:

  • Uptrend: A lower-than-expected CPI could ease inflationary concerns and strengthen the market.

  • Downtrend: A higher-than-expected CPI could lead to a drop in cryptocurrency prices as investors seek lower-risk assets.

September 12: Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims

The PPI provides an early look at inflation by measuring price changes in output. A modest increase in the PPI can indicate subdued inflationary pressure, which can be seen as positive. The jobless claims report, meanwhile, provides insights into the labor market. A stronger economy usually leads to a more robust crypto market, but it can also put pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates.

Potential Impact:

  • Uptrend: PPI in line with expectations and flat or falling jobless claims may suggest a healthy economy without the need for aggressive rate hikes.

  • Downtrend: Higher-than-expected PPI and rising jobless claims could suggest economic troubles, negatively impacting the market.

Current Trend Analysis

The price of Bitcoin, at the time of writing, is hovering around $25,900. After the significant drop in the past few months, the market is in a consolidation phase, with BTC repeatedly testing the $25,000 support zone.

  • Technical Indicators: The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is close to 40, suggesting a slight downtrend but not indicating oversold. The 50- and 200-period moving averages are sloping downward, reinforcing the selling pressure.

  • Conclusion: Based on current events and technical indicators, the cryptocurrency market is in a 60% downtrend and a 40% uptrend. The coming week will be crucial in determining whether the market will continue its correction or recover, depending on the outcome of the aforementioned events.