"Do we really need to wait 16 months for the big bull market?"

A few days ago, the boss of Fish Pond, Shenyu, said that he was prepared to persist for 16 months, which was widely circulated. Today, Shenyu came out to refute the rumor in the group.

In fact, Shenyu's logic is similar to the message I sent in early August. The interest rate cut is not achieved overnight. The liquidity in the market will be abundant only when it is continuously released to a certain extent, and gradually overflow to the cottage outside of Bitcoin to become the cottage season market.

Historically, the duration of the interest rate cut cycle ranges from a few months to a year and a half. On average, the interest rate cut cycle usually lasts 12 to 18 months. If the interest rate cut begins in September 2024, it may end in late 2025 or early 2026, but the specific time depends on inflation and economic performance.

Why did the big bull market in 2020 come so suddenly? Because the Fed's emergency interest rate cut from March 2020 to zero interest rate was very short, lasting only less than a month, mainly because the sharp economic downturn caused by the epidemic required quick action.

So if you want to ask when the "water" in the market-- funds, is the most abundant? That should be at least a year later. But will the market get better after a year? No, it is very likely that the market will be priced in before the end of the flooding.

But the biggest question now is how many altcoins can survive until then. Many narratives are outdated and no one really mentions them anymore. Some founders are rugged and that’s it. Even if they make a profit that is not decent, they will never come back after cutting their losses.

For example, @friendtech, who was sighed by the whole network today

Now I am more optimistic about the old DeFi infrastructure, $AAVE $UNI $1INCH , the old stuff that is still in use after the glorious years of DeFi. 100% circulation, there are still a lot of applications in the bear market, and the team has real money repurchase (1inch made me look at it with new eyes this time).

If the flooding really comes, shouldn’t it first fill up those projects that have gone through multiple cycles of tests and did not run away with their tails between their legs?