A Trump victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election could jeopardize the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), according to a Jefferies analysis.
The report highlighted concerns that Trump's return to office might lead to rollbacks in renewable energy support, especially with Republicans likely to gain control of the Senate.
âThe White House remains uncertain, but a slim Republican Senate majority seems probable,â Jefferies noted.
In such a scenario, Trump might seek to reverse IRA provisions, including incentives for solar and wind projects. However, the report emphasized that a divided Congress would pose significant challenges to these efforts.
"A narrowly divided House could complicate Trumpâs ability to enact policy changes," Jefferies said. On the other hand, a victory for Harris would likely lead to the continuation and possibly expansion of IRA policies, though the Republican-controlled Senate would temper more ambitious proposals.
âHarris could build on the IRAâs current framework, but the Senate's composition would delay or modify major initiatives,â the report explained. The absence of detailed policy plans from both candidates leaves the IRAâs future uncertain.
Jefferies also noted the increasing partisan divide over renewable energy. While some red states benefit from IRA provisions, opposition from Republican lawmakers remains strong. âBipartisan support may be feasible for nuclear energy, but resistance to solar and wind incentives endures,â the report observed.
The outcome of the 2024 election will be pivotal in shaping U.S. energy policy, with potential impacts on domestic energy markets and international relations, particularly regarding Chinaâs role in IRA subsidies.
