Where is BTC support? Is 49,000 the bottom?

The current market focus is, when BTC falls further, where can it provide effective support? Analyzing the MA and EMA moving averages, from the 7-day to the 200-day moving averages, the support below is already thin. The key support of the monthly line is at 44,000, which is a rather pessimistic reference point.

The 3-day MA120 may provide short-term support near 53,000, but the actual situation is that MA120 is close to 52,700, which has become the most direct and effective support point at present.

Whether 49,000 is a definite bottom, its importance is self-evident. If this position can stop the decline and bring about a shock rebound, the market is expected to usher in structural stability. On the contrary, if it falls below this position, the decline may intensify, and there is a lack of strong support below, and the situation will be more unclear.

I personally hold a cautious attitude towards the current situation for two reasons:

First, there is a lack of strong data or positive news at the macro level to boost the market or reverse the price trend; although the expectation of interest rate cuts exists, the effect is limited, especially the large interest rate cuts under the premise of economic stability, which may not necessarily reverse the market.

Second, the short-term price is still fluctuating downward, and the moving average system is moving downward without any signs of divergence, indicating that the price may approach 49,000. In addition, the market sentiment before and after the interest rate cut is sensitive, especially the strong reaction to negative economic data, which may make the buffer space of 49,000 insufficient.

The short-term trend of BTC is still full of uncertainty. The market outlook next week may not be optimistic, unless it can reverse the decline and achieve a volatile upward trend, providing a sufficient support range for 49,000 points. Otherwise, if the market fluctuates sharply after the interest rate cut, 49,000 points may be difficult to hold, and the risk of a direct break is high.

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