The recent market volatility has made investors anxious. Whether Bitcoin will fall sharply in September or rebound strongly in October has become the focus of attention. Let us analyze the current market situation from a professional perspective and explore future possibilities.
Current Key Resistance Levels and Market Sentiment
The main resistance level that Bitcoin is currently facing is $57,000. If this level is broken, it may trigger a strong bullish trend. From the perspective of technical analysis, this is a key point in the recent market, and a breakthrough will open up higher upside for Bitcoin. However, if the breakthrough fails, volatility may increase in the short term.
Historical pattern of decline in September
Historical data shows that September is often a weak month for Bitcoin. According to data from well-known analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin fell 7% in September 2022, and experienced similar declines in 2021, 2020, and 2018. The bearish trend in September has become a market inertia, causing many investors to worry that the current decline will intensify further. However, it is worth noting that 2024 is the year of Bitcoin's halving, which tends to reduce the market's selling pressure, making the downside relatively limited.
Market peculiarities of the halving year
The halving cycle has a significant impact on the volatility of Bitcoin prices. During the halving cycles in 2016 and 2020, the market's decline was significantly reduced. This is because the halving reduces the supply of Bitcoin, reduces selling pressure, and makes market sentiment more bullish. Taking 2020 as an example, despite the correction in September, the overall market decline was limited and ushered in a strong rebound in the following months. Therefore, even in extreme cases, a single-digit decline may occur in September, but this decline is more likely to lay the foundation for a subsequent rebound.
According to the available data, if Bitcoin continues to pull back in September, a drop of 7%-13% could cause it to fall to $55,000 or lower. However, due to the particularity of the halving year, we do not expect an extreme drop, such as the 19% sharp drop in the 2014 bear market. This means that the current market remains in a relatively healthy range.
Hopes for an October rebound
Despite the weaker trend in September, historical data shows that October is usually a strong month for Bitcoin. In the past few years, the average increase in October has exceeded 20%, especially in the 2020 halving cycle, when Bitcoin soared 27% in October. Based on this historical pattern, many analysts believe that Bitcoin is expected to rise by 10% to 30% in October this year, laying the foundation for the start of a new round of bull market.
Market prospects and operational suggestions
Overall, the next trend of Bitcoin will depend on whether it breaks through the key resistance level of $57,000. If it succeeds in breaking through, the market will likely usher in a larger wave of gains. But if it fails to break through, a pullback may occur, especially when market uncertainty increases.
Rekt Capital's analysis shows that Bitcoin may retest the $55,000 support level, or even fall to around $46,000 in more extreme cases. However, it is worth noting that this deep correction does not represent a long-term bearish outlook for the market, but may lay the foundation for a sharp rebound in the future.
Although Bitcoin's historic drop in September is worrying, the characteristics of the halving cycle make a sharp drop less likely in the long run. The probability of a rebound in October is high, and investors should remain patient and pay attention to changes in key support and resistance levels. For those who already hold positions, they should adopt a wait-and-see attitude in the short term, while those with light positions can consider entering the market gradually in batches.
The next market fluctuations will be a critical period where opportunities and risks coexist. How to make a reasonable layout will determine future returns.
The recent market turmoil has brought new investment opportunities. Through Lao Chen's in-depth analysis and data research, some potential high-return opportunities have been identified. Whether it is Bitcoin's momentum indicators or technical signals of other mainstream currencies, Lao Chen will provide you with detailed analysis to help you navigate the market with ease.
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