Yesterday, BTC and ETH both fell sharply! It caught many people off guard! Many people are in a state of confusion! ! Patiently spend three minutes to read this article, so that you will no longer be confused! The following paragraph has been flooding the screen recently! ! ! It is full of sarcasm! ! ! After all, in this kind of almost desperate market, many people will not believe in a bull market.

The US economy is good, but it’s over. There is insufficient motivation to cut interest rates, and it’s going to fall!

The US economy is bad. It’s over. It’s going to collapse and go into recession. It’s going to fall!

The United States has cut interest rates, it’s over, the good news has come, and the market is going to fall!

If the United States doesn’t cut interest rates, it’s over. The market is dry and will fall!

When you hate someone, even breathing is wrong. When the market is bad, everything you do is bad.

But if you believe there is still a bull market, I believe the dawn is not far away.

Many people are still wondering, aren’t the non-farm data and unemployment rate released by the United States last night all positive? Why did it fall so badly? ?

Now the Fed’s data is in preparation for a rate cut, and the data has been optimized! However, the market’s bearish sentiment and risk aversion are very strong! And Chong Ge has said more than once that the current market is highly illiquid! The daily turnover of the copycat is very low, and the market makers are not doing anything! The exchange also joined forces with the dog dealer to harvest, and now even the token economics are ignored! The practice is extremely despicable! It seems that Binance has changed a lot without CZ!

The main reason for this wave of BTC decline is the lack of liquidity in the market. Most of the chips are held by whales. Most of the whales have not moved in the past six months and are quietly staying in their wallets! Many BTC whales have also started to hoard BTC frantically! Those who sell are short-term speculators, and the number of bitcoins transferred to exchanges is also gradually decreasing.

So in terms of chip concentration, Bitcoin is moving towards the upper level, the demand is still strong, and the scarcity of Bitcoin cannot be changed. Now with the passage of spot ETFs, the demand for Bitcoin from institutions and various funds is increasing.

It is a common problem that September is indeed the worst performing month in history. This month, there are a lot of news and data, the Federal Reserve has another interest rate meeting, and this time it is the beginning of a rate cut, so the market is so ugly.

Here we talk about the relationship between liquidity and interest rate cuts. It is true that the beginning of interest rate cuts will hit liquidity. Every time an interest rate cut begins, there will be a risk aversion sentiment in the U.S. stock market, which is negative in the short term. Only multiple interest rate cuts will increase liquidity, which is good for the U.S. stock market in the long run.

So the market would ask, why do U.S. stocks rise during the interest rate hike cycle, but fall during the interest rate cut cycle?

It is a liquidity issue. When the US dollar is in an interest rate hike cycle, the US dollar is in a strong cycle. Global funds will flow back to the United States for risk aversion, and part of the funds will flow into the US stock market, bringing liquidity and driving up the US stock market.

When the interest rate cut cycle begins, funds will seek safety and begin to flow out of the United States. Non-US currencies will strengthen, which will also take away some funds from US stocks, causing liquidity to decline, thereby triggering a short-term decline in US stocks.

However, with the arrival of multiple interest rate cuts, liquidity will come again, because as interest rates fall, funds deposited in banks will go to markets with higher yields, that is, US stocks.

In addition, institutional investors who previously gave up financing due to the increase in financing costs due to the interest rate hike will now start to raise funds again as interest rates fall. The purpose of financing is to invest and obtain higher returns. In the United States, U.S. stocks are still the most attractive market, which brings together the world's top listed companies.

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand why the U.S. stock market rises during the interest rate hike cycle, but sees capital outflow when the interest rate cut cycle begins.

But as I said, the escape is only a temporary risk aversion. As interest rates fall, this part of the safe-haven funds will flow back from US bonds to US stocks again.

Let me say something that is considered good. Even though mainstream coins fell so sharply yesterday, many altcoins no longer followed suit. This shows that the market has begun to differentiate, and many altcoins have reached a price and market value that the market can accept.

Recently, many people have lamented to me that "the threshold of this industry is getting higher and higher", and what I want to say is "other people's thresholds are ways for you and me to make money." #BTC走势分析