On September 5, the men's football team faced Japan in the first match of the 2026 World Cup round of 18 qualifiers, and ended up in a disastrous defeat of 0-7.

In fact, most fans knew that the game was doomed to fail, but they did not expect the score to be so disparate. In addition, the lack of courage and enthusiasm disappointed the fans. The historical record also created a "zero" myth and a record of miserable defeat. Although there was no goal in 90 minutes, yesterday's big cake became a "fast man"!

Everyone has seen yesterday's news, the August non-agricultural data was released, which was very good news, but after the release, the market plummeted by nearly 4,000 points. The total market value of $$BTC cryptocurrency has now fallen below 2 trillion US dollars, now at 1.98 trillion US dollars, a 24-hour drop of 5%. It's like giving you "sea cucumber" or "abalone" and you can't do it. There must be something wrong. It's not that the data is "weak" and not powerful, but that "diluted" is more cost-effective for recession! #美国8月非农就业人数不及预期 #小非农增幅创3年多新低

Why did Bitcoin rise and then fall after the non-farm data?

Let's talk about yesterday's August non-agricultural data:

The number of non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 142,000 in August, compared with an expected increase of 165,000 and a previous value of 114,000.

The U.S. unemployment rate in August was 4.2%, in line with market expectations and in line with the previous value of 4.3%. It was the lowest since June this year and the first decline after rising for four consecutive months.

Let’s talk about the reasons for Bitcoin’s performance:

Some time before the data was released yesterday, Bitcoin started to rise. The rise was because the market affirmed the non-agricultural data, which was higher than the previous value but lower than expected. It indicated the strong resilience of the US economy and also supported the upcoming interest rate cut, so it was good for both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market.

The Wall Street Journal said the August data was up from July, when job gains sparked concerns about an economic slowdown and shook global financial markets. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.2% in August. The latest nonfarm report did not clearly eliminate uncertainty over whether Fed officials would cut rates by a more traditional 25 basis point or a more aggressive 50 basis point.

Soon after, the market started to fall. I personally think that capital is flowing from cryptocurrencies to the stock market. After all, investors will choose a market with lower risks and still growing. The stock market obviously meets this purpose under the influence of non-agricultural data. The three major U.S. stock indexes closed down collectively, creating the largest drop in several years. Of course, dog dealers also released false news to take advantage of the opportunity to reap profits.

Fed Governor Waller said: If the situation is right, he will advocate "front-loaded rate cuts", and Fed Chairman Williams said: He is ready to start the rate cut process. Therefore, a rate cut has become a necessity, and it depends on whether it is 25 points or 50 points.

Finally, let’s talk about the hidden points of non-agricultural information:

According to Jinshi data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Non-agricultural employment in June was revised from 179,000 to 118,000; non-agricultural employment in July was revised from 114,000 to 89,000. After the revision, the total number of new jobs in June and July was 86,000 lower than before the revision.

It is obvious that the non-farm payrolls in the first two months were inflated, but the inflated figures still triggered a sharp drop, and people were worried about entering a recession. So I personally think that the August data tonight was also inflated. According to the revised data, we have already entered a recession! And Buffett is still continuing to reduce his holdings!

What are the effects of 25 basis points and 50 basis points under the expectation of interest rate cuts?

Although Bitcoin is currently shrouded in the September curse, many analysts believe that this may be the last great opportunity to enter the market this year.

Nick Timiraos, the "Fed mouthpiece", said that the non-farm payrolls report is likely to provide a clear signal about the extent of the Fed's first rate cut, whether it is 25 basis points or 50 basis points, the market pricing will immediately rise to 90%. However, this non-farm payrolls report did not solve this problem very well, and the market is currently pricing in a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut. The overall non-farm data is not bad enough to change the baseline expectation to a 50 basis point rate cut, but considering the revised data, it is not convincing enough to completely dispel speculation about a larger rate cut.

Bitcoin has been fluctuating sideways from 73,000 to 55,000 in March for six months. It is currently fluctuating between Fibonacci 0.618 and 0.236, corresponding to the range of 64,300 and 55,000. There is currently strong support at 55,000.

Even though the Fed announced a rate cut, two Fed officials sent contradictory signals last night. New York Fed President Williams said that "the job market has returned to normal from an overheated state" (implying a 25 basis point rate cut). Fed Governor Waller said that if the data shows that a larger rate cut is needed, I would support it. The U.S. August CPI will be released next Wednesday, and the Fed may make a final decision after the data is released.

The non-farm payrolls data supports the rate cut. Although it is lower than expected, there is no major problem and it is higher than July. At the same time, the unemployment rate has dropped, breaking away from the triggering factor of the "Sam Rule Recession". However, the current labor market problems are not optimistic. The first rate cut of 25BP is obviously not enough, but the rate cut of 50BP has caused the market to worry about the recession expectations!

This month’s U.S. interest rate decision will greatly impact Bitcoin’s short-term volatility and long-term trend.

If anything, 25 basis points could mark the start of a typical easing cycle, which could lead to long-term gains in Bitcoin prices as liquidity increases and recession fears recede.

A more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut could cause an immediate surge in prices, but prices could correct if recession fears intensify.

From a historical perspective: the performance of the global economy after 50 basis points has not been consistent.

Recessions began two months after the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in January 2001 and three months after it did in September 2007. But rate cuts at other times may have had a positive impact on the global economy.

How to deal with the next rate cut

This week, the overall performance of the market trend was not ideal, whether in terms of market sentiment or news. This verifies the fact that the market is now mainly waiting for "news" stimulation, so it is crucial to remain calm and patient. It is recommended to wait for clearer trend signals before making decisions to cope with future market changes.