On September 4, the crypto market fell again. Bitcoin dropped to around $55,600, and altcoins were even worse, with their declines tracking last year’s bear market levels. Regarding the market trend in the last four months of this year, various institutions and celebrities have different long and short views, and their short-term and long-term investment suggestions are also different.
However, overall, the key factors that are most likely to affect the crypto market in the future are: Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, general elections, SEC regulatory strategies, FTX debt repayment schedule, trends in U.S. stocks and technology stocks, U.S. Bitcoin ETF capital flows, reductions in half cycle etc. Especially in anticipation of interest rate cuts and halvings, many investors and institutions have adopted an early approach. However, some analysts still say that they should pay attention to short-term risks. Bitcoin may fall back to the range of 40,000-50,000 US dollars.
In this regard, Golden Finance has compiled the opinions of celebrities from representative institutions and recent good and bad events in order to have a clearer understanding of the future crypto market trends.
Bullish and positive events
Bullish:
ETC Group Research Director: Bitcoin’s illiquid supply reached 74% of the total, hitting a record high, indicating that the supply shock caused by the halving is actually intensifying, which will bring negative consequences to Bitcoin and other cryptoassets in the coming months. A growing push.
Grayscale: If the dollar weakens and interest rates continue to fall, it will be positive for Bitcoin. The main downside risks to crypto valuations are further increases in unemployment and a possible recession, although U.S. legislators will start to release water and promote consumption when the problem shows signs of recession.
Rekt Capital Analyst: Bitcoin’s historical performance in October is usually very strong. Data shows that Bitcoin has only experienced declines in October of 2014 and 2018, both of which were in bear market cycles. Currently, the market is in the midst of the Bitcoin halving cycle year. Historically, Bitcoin has only seen single-digit gains in October in 2018, also a bear market year. Beyond that, October typically brings double-digit gains, with average gains reaching 22%.
Crypto analyst Titan of Crypto: Bitcoin price is expected to reach $110,000 in 2025. Bitcoin is forming a “cup-and-handle” pattern, which is a bullish chart pattern that suggests price increases may occur in the future. Bitcoin highs will occur in the fourth quarter of 2024 and may reach $100,000 in the first quarter of 2025.
Bitfinex Analyst: A 25 basis point rate cut could signal the start of a typical easing cycle, while a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut could cause an immediate surge in Bitcoin prices, but could be followed by a correction as recession fears intensify.
QCP Capital: Bitcoin may find strong support at $54,000, with options markets still showing bullish signals in the medium term. The report also mentioned that this week’s unemployment claims data (September 5) and non-farm payrolls report (September 6) may not have a significant impact on cryptocurrency prices, as recent general economic data has a negative impact on cryptocurrencies. The impact has weakened.
Analyst: Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s average hash rate has been growing steadily over the past year and is set to grow significantly in 2024. Historically, the hash rate has typically moved in line with Bitcoin's price, reflecting miner confidence and more optimistic market sentiment.
CryptoQuant Analyst: The on-chain indicator Bitcoin Puell Multiple Index shows that Bitcoin is close to “favorable” buying levels. In addition, the depressed price of Bitcoin computing power may indicate that Bitcoin price is near a bottom.
Glassnode: Bitcoin’s net realized profit/loss indicator has stabilized in the second half of this year, indicating a balance between profits and losses as the market matures after the halving.
Real Vision Chief Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin may reach $150,000 before the end of 2024, and Bitcoin’s price trend is expected to enter a “crazy season.”
Positive events:
Russia allows the use of cryptocurrencies for international trade.
The U.S. SEC is no longer seeking to reinstate hedge fund trading fee disclosure rules.
Zurich Cantonal Bank Launches Bitcoin and Crypto Products.
Metaplanet has reached a cooperation with the encryption arm of Japanese financial giant SBI and will continue to increase its holdings of Bitcoin. Metaplanet has acquired 360 Bitcoins ($207 million) to date, using its primary reserve assets as collateral to bolster its ability to obtain equity and debt financing.
Data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a monthly net inflow of 975 Bitcoins in August, and the number of addresses holding more than 100 Bitcoins reached 16,120, a 17-month high.
The President of Venezuela has proposed returning to the path of cryptocurrencies, potentially retaking a crypto-friendly stance in the future.
Cryptocurrency losses fell to an all-time low of $15 million in August.
Starbucks accepts Bitcoin as payment in El Salvador.
Greeks.live General Economic Researcher: Cryptocurrency has entered a correction trend, whale users have begun to make long positions, and there are more large call options, with multiple options at the end of September and the end of October.
Bearish and negative events
Bearish:
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes: If interest rates rise again and market liquidity tightens, Bitcoin may face another correction.
Trader T: Institutional investment in Bitcoin and its derivatives was not active in August, with rising sentiment at +1.1x and falling sentiment at -1.3x in MSTR-BTC data. MSTR-BTC sentiment refers to the market's views and expectations on the correlation between MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock and Bitcoin. Sentiment means that the market shows some degree of bias towards the correlation between MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Bitcoin.
Bitfinex reports: Bitcoin could see a 15-20% drop on rate cut this month, with bottom between $40,000 and $50,000.
Wolfe Research analyst: Bitcoin may first pull back below $50,000 before a potential rally in 2025. Bitcoin may return to the bottom of this range, the low $50,000 area, in the coming weeks. Unless there is a significant change, the bearish stance on Bitcoin’s price will continue to remain in the short to medium term.
10x Research: Potential short squeeze has recently pushed up Bitcoin prices and may be at risk in September.
BTC Markets Analyst: The crypto market may decline due to a combination of factors such as the "September Effect" due to portfolio rebalancing, tax loss profits, and increased caution before the U.S. election.
Crypto data provider Kaiko: The crypto market is currently facing a severe oversupply problem, which may continue to depress Bitcoin prices. Other major holders may also add to the selling pressure in the near future. The U.S. government, for example, holds more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin, and other countries, including the United Kingdom, China, and Ukraine, also hold significant Bitcoin reserves.
Citi: ETF flows are likely to continue to disappoint until markets are transparent about the outcome of the U.S. economic landing.
Analyst Ali: Bitcoin has struggled to break above $63,250 since June 22. This price level often acts as resistance, as short-term holders are more inclined to sell when the price falls below the entry point.
CryptoQuant: From a price perspective, if Bitcoin prices fall below $56,000, the risk of a larger correction increases.
Negative events:
Data from Farside Investors showed that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF suffered its largest outflow in nearly four months on September 3, and market sentiment was subdued. Investors at Wall Street banks and hedge funds held on to Bitcoin ETFs in the second quarter, but overall flows were weak.
Matrixport: South Korea’s cryptocurrency trading volume hit a new low this year last weekend.
Bitcoin miners’ earnings hit a year-low in August.
Victory Securities: Funding Rates indicate stronger short strength in the contract market.
IntoTheBlock data shows that Bitcoin faces continued selling pressure between $61,700 and $70,500. Since a large number of traders are losing money in this price range, there will be constant selling pressure every time the price of Bitcoin approaches this level, with many investors looking to break even. This is why it is difficult for Bitcoin to reach new highs. Only strong momentum can break through this trend and reach new highs.
Spot on chain data shows that Bitcoin’s performance in September has been rising in only three of the past 10 years.
Data from The Block Pro shows that in August, the total adjusted on-chain transaction volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by 15.3% to US$377 billion. Bitcoin’s adjusted on-chain transaction volume fell by 12.1%, and Ethereum’s decline was 20.2%.
summary
Judging from the comparison of the long and short situation, the bullish sentiment does not overwhelmingly cover the bearish view. The current market sentiment is more inclined to suggest that there is still a risk of decline before interest rates are cut, and several other major factors such as the election, the U.S. economy, and regulation are still unclear, and the market direction may fluctuate violently at any time. However, institutions are generally optimistic about the long-term upward trend of the encryption market, and giant whales are also quietly making plans. In short, ordinary investors still need to be cautious under the current situation and always pay attention to market changes.
[Disclaimer] There are risks in the market, so investment needs to be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, and users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions contained in this article are appropriate for their particular circumstances. Invest accordingly and do so at your own risk.
This article is reprinted with permission from: "Foresight News"
Original author: Climber, Golden Finance
