Tonight's employment data, teach you how to read:

1. If the unemployment rate rises to 4.4% (that's a big positive!), a 50 basis point rate cut will become a high probability event.

2. If the unemployment rate falls and job growth remains at 100,000 or more (bad news), the Fed will be cautious about a large rate cut.

Especially with the presidential election approaching, the Fed may be accused of favoring the ruling party by lowering interest rates to boost the economy.

The futures market expects the Fed to usher in its first 25 basis point rate cut this month, with a cumulative rate cut of 1 percentage point this year, and several more 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025.

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