Let's imagine that you bought Bitcoin at current prices and suddenly a black swan arrives. According to our hypothesis, Bitcoin will no longer fall below $19,500 (we are not waiting for loys to be updated). In this case, you will have a drawdown of -29%.

However, what if there is no Black Swan? Will the price continue to rise? Then you will end up buying Bitcoin much higher than current prices, or perhaps not buying at all and missing out on the entire rally.