Inescapable fate? Can tonight's non-farm data reverse the trend of the US dollar?
Today is the key day of this week's market. The US unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population change data (large non-farm data) for August will be released at 8:30 pm. Before the data is released, I will give you some analysis for reference.
Let's first look at yesterday's ADP small non-farm data. The announced value was 99,000, far lower than the predicted 145,000, causing the US dollar index to fall from its recent high to below 101. However, it should be noted that yesterday's data is not directly related to today's data, but only sets the starting point for today's market. The high and low data do not point to a clear trend, so we cannot assume that the large non-farm data will be the same just because the small non-farm data is disappointing.
Next is the key data analysis. The forecast value of the unemployment rate is 4.2%, and the previous value is 4.3%. If the announced value is equal to or greater than 4.3%, the US dollar index may fall sharply and return to around 100; if the announced value is 4.2% or below, the market will reverse quickly, and the US dollar index is expected to rise above 101, or even close to 102, while other currencies will fall sharply.
The forecast value of non-agricultural data is 160,000, and the previous value is 114,000, which is more likely to be higher than the previous value. If the published value is lower than the forecast (160,000) but higher than the previous value (114,000), the market may not show a significant negative reaction, but fluctuate forward, and the US dollar may not fall further at this time. If the published value is lower than the forecast and the previous value, the US dollar index may fall further like the small non-agricultural data; if the published value is higher than the forecast, the US dollar index will be expected to hit the 102 mark, at least back to above 101.5.
It is worth mentioning that the unemployment rate and non-agricultural data are not always synchronized. If the unemployment rate falls and the non-agricultural data is good, the US dollar will rise sharply; conversely, if the unemployment rate rises and the non-agricultural performance is poor, the US dollar will plummet. In fact, if the two perform in opposite ways, it is necessary to pay attention to the difference between the data. Usually, the direction with a large difference will dominate the market trend. For example, if the published value of non-agricultural data exceeds expectations and the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, the trend of non-agricultural data is the main trend, and the US dollar will perform strongly at this time.
Everyone is welcome to exchange different views or questions in the comment area. $BTC #非农就业数据即将公布
