The non-farm payrolls report is about to be released, and the suspense of the Fed's interest rate cut has intensified
On Friday night Beijing time, the United States will release August non-farm payrolls data. There are only two weeks before the Fed's first possible rate cut. The market is paying close attention to the impact of this report on the rate cut decision. July data showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, and the number of new jobs was lower than expected, which triggered global stock market fluctuations and increased market expectations for the Fed's rate cut. This non-farm data may determine the extent of the Fed's rate cut. The market predicts that the number of new jobs in August will be 160,000, and the unemployment rate will drop slightly to 4.2%.
Analyst Bret Kenwell pointed out that the July employment data is worrying. The labor market is the lifeblood of the economy, and investors are particularly nervous about this data. Citigroup believes that if the employment data continues to be weak, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September.
Despite the slowdown in overall employment growth, some experts such as Lydia Boussour still expect the Fed to be inclined to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Stephen Dover of Franklin Templeton emphasized that the actual reasons behind the changes in the unemployment rate will be the key factor in judging the health of the labor market.
The forecast of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut on September 19 and its market impact were analyzed. The key lies in the extent of the rate cut and the market reaction:
If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points, the expectation of interest rate cut will be fulfilled, which may be bearish and the market will fall;
If the interest rate is cut by 25 basis points and inflation is contained, the economy is stable, which may be positive and the market will rise;
A 50 basis point rate cut could be a negative for the market if there are problems with the economy;
If the interest rate is cut by 50 basis points, which is more than expected, it may be a positive factor and the market will rise.
September has frequent data and news, and the market is volatile. There is a high chance of a second bottom, especially after the release of non-agricultural data, which may be a good time to arrange spot. According to experience, there may be a wave of increases in October.
BTC's market share has peaked, and funds are flowing into altcoins. When this wave of adjustments is over, the fourth quarter may become a period of explosion for small altcoins.
THERE IS
It is currently down 61.03% from its yearly high and needs to rise by more than 206% to regain $1. Despite a price drop of about 20% in the past two weeks, it is still holding above the key support level, showing that this level is a strong buy point. ADA has formed a falling wedge pattern on the 1D time frame and has been fluctuating within this range since mid-April, indicating a long-term bearish market.
However, technical indicators RSI and MACD suggest bearish sentiment is waning. As volatility increases, ADA has the potential to stage a strong bullish reversal. It is expected that in the fourth quarter, with the completion of the largest upgrade in Cardano’s history, the price of its native token ADA will increase significantly. If it holds above key support, ADA will test resistance at $0.50.
GHOST
After the trading price reached $130, huge investors flocked in. The founder of Aave sold $6 million worth of tokens, while two whales ignored the market fluctuations and bought $2.2 million worth of AAVE tokens and withdrew 50,605 AAVE tokens worth $6.8 million.
Another whale, "0xa92", currently holds 125,605 AAVE tokens worth $16.7 million. Driven by the bullish trend, the cryptocurrency price may break through the $142 resistance level and further challenge the psychological barrier of $150. The next target of the Fibonacci level is $182.
WIF
Whales are actively buying meme tokens. The largest holder bought 800,556 WIF tokens for $1.54 million USDC and currently holds 28 million WIF tokens worth $53.23 million, with a profit of more than $77 million.
Another whale also bought 9.57 million WIF tokens worth $13.59 million. WIF price traded at $1.59 after rising 9.95% yesterday but fell 2.5% intraday as bullish sentiment faded. A death cross occurred between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Based on the Fibonacci levels, the next resistance is $2.00, while the target of the 61.80% Fibonacci level is $3.31.
That’s all for today’s article. We are currently in a bull market, and things are turbulent. We share passwords every day.
