9.6 Accurate market analysis:

Good morning, everyone. The market fluctuated repeatedly and now barely holds $56,000.

BTC's ETF has had net outflows for 7 consecutive days, with an outflow of 200 million US dollars yesterday.

Last night, the small non-farm ADP was released, showing that less than 100,000 jobs were added, which was the fifth consecutive month of slowing growth, further confirming the cooling of the job market, which is good for the Fed's interest rate cut.

At present, the September rate cut is a foregone conclusion.

The probability is 25 basis points, and the probability is 50 basis points.

If the rate is cut by 50 basis points, it will be a big positive.

The unemployment rate and non-farm data released at 20:30 tonight are particularly critical.

Because the data will give the final say on how much the rate will be cut.

Be wary of the possibility of exceeding expectations to prevent BTC from falling to $55,000.

The progress of solving Mentougou, which has been a hindrance to the currency circle for 10 years, has reached 70%.

The core of how the currency circle will go in the future is still to look at the Fed's base interest rate.

The current interest rate is between 5.25% and 5.5%, and it may fall below 3% by the end of 2025.

The lower the interest rate, the more beneficial it is to the currency circle.

But in the past two years, it is difficult to see the situation of 0 interest rate flooding and currency circle surge like in 2021.

The money-making effect is reduced, and there are only local opportunities.

In terms of ETF, there has been a net outflow for 7 consecutive days, and 200 million US dollars flowed out yesterday.

BTC has been falling for 12 consecutive days. The current recommendation is to hold on. It is obviously inappropriate to short or sell at a loss at this price.