Bitcoin (BTC) has had a tough time, failing to reach its anticipated record high since its recent halving. The cryptocurrency’s price has dropped by 10% and is currently hovering around $57.2K. This is the longest period of time that Bitcoin has not reached a new high since its halving, as high interest rates and supply issues have weighed on its price performance.
Bitcoin Halving Cycle Delayed
Historically, Bitcoin has typically surged after each halving event, with significant price increases occurring after the miner reward is reduced. Previous halving cycles have produced strong price trends, pushing Bitcoin to new record highs.
However, this time around, things seem to be different. After the fourth halving, Bitcoin prices have been relatively stable, mostly trading sideways without experiencing the explosive growth seen in previous cycles. This is partly due to the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the arrival of new investors that have changed the dynamics of the market, causing Bitcoin to reach record highs before the halving.
Unlike the usual accumulations seen during halvings, long-term investors (LTHs) took profits earlier this year, especially when Bitcoin hit $73K in March. Data shows that many of these investors have slowed down since then, creating a different pattern than previous halving cycles.
Furthermore, a significant oversupply, including the repayment of Mt. Gox creditors and the sale of seized Bitcoin by the German government, has added pressure to the market.
Is Bitcoin Ready for a Bull Run?
While the situation is relatively calm, popular cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Rover believes that this stability is only temporary. His analysis shows that Bitcoin is forming a strong resistance level, which is often a sign of an impending breakout.
According to Rover’s halving chart, current market conditions suggest that Bitcoin could soon break out of this sideways trend and begin a bull run, potentially reaching $100K to $120K.
On-Chain Index Gives the Big Picture
Bitcoin is struggling to stay above $60K, but the situation is not all doom and gloom. According to Glassnode, Bitcoin's unrealized losses currently stand at 2.9% of the total market cap. The combined ratio of unrealized gains to unrealized losses shows that most investors' profits are six times larger than their losses.
However, short-term investors (STH), those holding coins for less than 155 days, are bearing the brunt of unrealized losses. While these losses are not extreme, further declines could trigger significant sell-offs from this group.
Long Term Outlook: Bullish or Bearish?
As more and more Bitcoin purchased during the record high in March moves to long-term investors, the market appears to be entering a bear market-like phase.
While it is unclear whether Bitcoin has peaked for this cycle or will rally again, many investors are debating whether now is the worst time to exit Bitcoin, or whether another bull run is just ahead.
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