After falling sharply with the collapse of the Federal Reserve, Bitcoin began to rebound yesterday. Obviously, the rebound was not strong. After testing 58,800 upwards, it began to turn around!

When I posted this article, the price had reached 57,000, and the market's fear and greed index reached 29. I said a long time ago that if you really don't have any excellent strategy.

Then I can tell you a strategy with a winning rate of more than 50%. When the market panic greed index shows fear, a small passive DCA position is built, and then sold at the high point.

The master leads you to the door, but the practice is up to you. Ultimately, this strategy still depends on you to continuously improve it, and then increase your knowledge reserves, learn effective indicators, and build your own complete framework. This is the only way to grow from a novice to an old investor. There are no shortcuts.

There are always newbies trying to find shortcuts. The most common question in their messages is, "Just tell me whether the market will go up or down. Tell me if I can go all in. It would be best if I buy today and make money tomorrow, double it next week, or make it in a month."
10 times, you will be financially free next year.

I have to say it again, there is no such shortcut. I cannot make such a prediction. If I knew the rise and fall clearly, I would have already used a hundred times leverage and went all in. I am still in the primary and secondary markets, slowly tempering my mentality and honing my own framework, and all I want is to achieve a multiple increase in the bull and bear cycles. In my thinking framework, ten times and a hundred times are odds that only come from gambling, and gambling has always been what investors want to get rid of the most.

We will continue to discuss this topic in the future. I sincerely hope that novices can learn to use the concepts and connotations of words such as odds, success rate, and winning rate, and learn to use them to understand their own trading behaviors, so that you are on the right path and have the possibility of growing slowly. If you always insist on the thinking of "betting a little, a bicycle becomes a motorcycle", like to gamble, roll your eyes, "win and you will be free, lose and jump off the building", then you will always be a gambler, you will never make progress, and you will never survive stably in the cryptocurrency circle.

one

Let’s first review what happened to the U.S. stock market crash today.

Everyone must be able to accept that the ups and downs of the U.S. stock market are normal fluctuations. Generally speaking, no trader will go back to ask what the reasons behind the ups and downs are. Because the ups and downs of the U.S. stock market are often caused by the practical behavior, consensus behavior and emotional logic of traders, and there is really no logic to talk about.

However, there is still a logic behind the recent slump in the U.S. stock market. This is because there is a very important macroeconomic indicator, which I pay close attention to, the ISM PMI index, which is very unsatisfactory.

There is no need to explain the specific financial details here. After all, this is not an advanced course in finance. I just want you to know the facts and the reasons, so I will briefly describe it to you.

ISM is the most influential supply chain organization in the world, and the indicators it publishes are widely followed around the world. Its most important indicators are the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI. Everyone knows that if the PMI is below 50, it means that the manufacturing industry is in a state of contraction. But seriously, the manufacturing industry has been contracting for 5 consecutive months, which is very serious. At the same time, due to the new order index-inventory index, the leading indicator of this PMI collapsed badly! So although the PMI index seems to have risen a little compared to last month, the leading indicator of PMI (generally leading by 3 months) collapsed so badly that American traders could not sit still. They saw that this was too much, and the PMI in the next 3 months might not be so ideal, what should they do?

Dismantle leverage! Dismantle positions! Re-establish short-term positions! Their purpose is to smooth out their short-term risks. However, such behavior has increased market volatility and triggered a chain reaction. Among them, Nvidia, which has a very high leverage, has become the biggest victim. In addition, Nvidia happened to receive a subpoena for an antitrust investigation at this time. Well!


It was not easy to make matters worse. Nvidia contributed to a 9.5% plunge in the stock market, and a total of 11% plunge in the two days. It also brought down Meg7 and the US technology stocks. The collapse of US technology stocks also intensified concerns about the US economic recession, which instantly triggered a plunge in cryptocurrencies.

two,

I'm a little impressed with myself for being able to explain such a complicated matter in just a few sentences. Applause!

I told you in a post yesterday that September is often a disaster month. Coupled with the Fed's interest rate cut this year, the positive news has turned into negative news. There is a high probability that there will be another squat in the middle and late part of the month. As for how deep the squat will be, this is beyond my ability.

But can we just do nothing and get through this miserable September with a blind eye? There is no absolute way.

Retail investors will ask again, after all your talk, you have finally said everything, so what do you want us to do?

It's not complicated. My view has always been that in the long term, I will not hesitate to be bullish on Bitcoin. I will hold my own Bitcoin investment assets for a long time. I deposit part of my Bitcoin assets in a cold wallet and then leave them alone for a long time. In the short and medium term, I will refer to the bull and bear cycles to adjust my positions. But September is a good time for me to increase my positions. I will set a framework for myself. At 52,000-55,000, I will open a position of more than 40%.

At 42,000-48,000, I will build a position of more than 80%.

If the market breaks through the 4-digit range, I will keep 10% in cash and go all in.

I will use some option structures for hedging and protection, but this is too complicated and not very friendly to retail investors. I will not explain it here.


three,

The future is bright. Continuing with Hong Kong’s progress in crypto assets, I just learned that Tiger Brokers (Hong Kong) announced that it will open Avalanche (AVAX), Chainlink (LINK), Aptos (APT) and Toncoin (TON) trading to retail investors.

The number of currencies available for professional investors to trade on Tiger Trade has increased to 20. The positive reforms provided by Hong Kong are not limited to this. There are more. For example, if you become a private banking customer of the Scum Bank and the Hui Bank, they will use a series of dazzling methods to realize the exchange of US dollars and U.S. The cost is very low and it is effective. I believe everyone can understand what this means.

As more and more Bitcoin addresses are used, retail investors can see that the number of big players holding 100 Bitcoins has continued to increase for 17 consecutive months. Going deeper, the number of medium-sized players holding more than 10 Bitcoins has continued to increase for 22 consecutive months. All of this shows that the consensus of Bitcoin has been further strengthened.

What does this mean? It means that the Bitcoin bubble has a solid foundation, which is “consensus” and “belief”.

So what would you choose?

I'll wait and see.