Last night, the BTC spot premium index briefly turned positive in a strong rebound, but has now returned to negative values. Looking at the recent market, spot selling pressure continued to exist before the price reached 56,000, but the rapid decline yesterday morning was mainly led by futures shorts. After hitting the stop loss of more than 56,100 orders, the positions were quickly closed to form a V-shaped reversal.
After the U.S. stock market opened, spot buying gradually entered the market, pushing the premium to a positive value, but when it rose slightly from 57,700 to 58,300, futures bulls took over, spot buying decreased, and the premium turned negative again.
In the short term, there is a spot buying demand area between 56700-57700, and the price is likely to fall back to this area:
If the premium rises after a correction, it means that demand is strong and futures shorts continue to support it, which is an opportunity to take long positions;
If the premium decreases, the rebound may be a short liquidity grab, the spot demand is insufficient, and the risk of taking long positions is relatively high.
Paying attention to the spot premium and eliminating bullish behavior are the key issues at present.
Xiao Miao said at the end of August that the unemployment rate data for September was critical, but before September 6, the market started to fall. The shadow of this economic recession continues to hang over the market:
The first rumor in early July caused Bitcoin to drop from $63,500 to $53,500, a drop of $10,000.
In August, there was another black swan crisis, and Bitcoin fell from $64,000 to $49,000, a drop of $15,000.
Now at the beginning of September, it has fallen from 65,000 to 57,607, a drop of nearly $7,500.
This recession hype is like a sword of Damocles hanging over our heads, and retail investors can’t stand it every month. In the past two months, more and more people have quit the circle, and the number of people losing money and in debt is also increasing. I really hope that this market will end soon, but in any case, before Bitcoin enters a one-sided rise, we should hurry to buy the bottom of altcoins.
Today I will focus on talking about TON
According to the most recent recommendation, the price of TON was around 5.9, and now it has fallen to 4.6. It can be seen that there are two obvious bearish patterns: ① head and shoulders top ② arc top (as shown in the figure).
When the price was around 5.2, despite the adjustment of the market, TON remained strong. In particular, most of the new projects recently launched by Binance belong to the TON ecosystem. In the case of generally poor market performance, TON is unique and has attracted a large number of investors to enter the market.
At the same time, the negative news of the founder's imprisonment made many investors who missed the opportunity choose to buy at the bottom, further pushing up the number of people entering the market. However, no currency can rise or fall continuously, and TON just follows the rhythm of the market with a slight delay. When the market is hottest, the main force is actually quietly shipping.
From a technical perspective, as shown in Figure ②, the price has not yet shown an obvious signal to stop falling. Even if there is a rebound in the short term, it is not expected to break through $5. In the long term, as shown in Figure ③, the strong support level has been broken, and even if there is a rebound in the short term, it may only be a short-term correction.
TON's adjustment cycle has not yet been completed, and its pace lags behind the market. The price may drop further in the future, triggering panic trading. According to Fibonacci and moving average analysis, support may appear around $4. If the decline accelerates, the price may reach multiple support areas around 3.5-3.2.
That’s all for today’s article. We are currently in a bull market, and things are turbulent. We share passwords every day.
