Is Ethereum still okay? My conclusion is yes. Simply put, the industry has a promising future, but it will take time to explode. The following is a simple record of my logic:
About L2:
From the perspective of the public chain narrative, there are almost no new L1s launched in this cycle.
Ethereum's modular L2 direction basically prevents the emergence of new public chains.
Chains launched by large companies (such as Sony) are mostly based on L2 of the Ethereum ecosystem infrastructure.
There are not many old and new public chains left, and the only one that can compete is Solana. Although L2 has divided liquidity and reduced Ethereum's value capture ability, this is only a temporary phenomenon because it occurs when there is insufficient liquidity in the market. Just like the ICO in 2017 and the liquidity mining in 2021, in the end only a few companies were left in each segment. L2 will also experience a process of first explosion and then convergence, and liquidity will eventually gather in a few chains. At the same time, Ethereum will eventually solve the interoperability problem.
Impact of reduced handling fees:
In the past, users only went online when they could make enough money because of the high transaction fees and high wallet thresholds. Now Ethereum transaction fees have been greatly reduced, and L2 transaction fees are even lower, which will promote the emergence of new application forms, such as a product subsidy of 10U, which is enough for users to operate 10,000 times. Coupled with the wide application of abstract accounts and social recovery, users do not need to worry about account security and thresholds. Easy-to-use infrastructure plus no transaction fees paid by users will attract many traditional web2 people to look for opportunities, thus creating new forms.
Regarding the competition between BTCFi and Solana:
I personally think that BTCFi will be based on Ethereum in the future, which strengthens the Ethereum public chain narrative. For example, the application market cannot be dominated by only Apple. As for the future share of Apple and Android, it depends on personal judgment. If you think Solana is also OK, which one will be better and more stable for you to keep for five years? It is a matter of personal confidence.
The future of the encryption industry:
Gambling and gray industries are the basics, and cryptocurrencies cannot die. Traditional finance is infiltrating on-chain businesses, and large companies are also making their own products. The future cycle may be different from the past. This cycle may be a turning point, making people realize that direct faB is not enough, and more people will make underlying products that make money. Just like before openai3.5 came out, Nvidia's infrastructure was already very good, and WeChat was released a few years after iPhone4, both of which require time accumulation and trial and error. Personally, I think there will be an explosive period in 5-10 years.
