1. Attention Value-Market Key Points
1. Market conditions
(1) Macro environment:
l U.S. stocks closed, European stocks mixed
On Monday, U.S. financial markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday. Markets were paying attention to the ISM manufacturing index to be released on Tuesday, the U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index for August to be released on Thursday, and the U.S. non-farm payrolls data for August to be released on Friday, in order to find clues on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points.
(2) Web3 field:
l QCP Capital: September will see a seasonal decline
Ethereum significantly underperformed relative to Bitcoin in August, according to analysis published by QCP Capital, which warned of further losses in September. Analysts at QCP Capital say: Bitcoin fell 8.6% in August. We started the month with the "Japan Crash" event, and Bitcoin has been unable to recover above $65,000. Ethereum’s performance in August was even worse, with a 22.2% drop that was allegedly due to a sell-off by Jump Trading. Last month’s massive price swings began on August 4, when major coins joined the stock market in a sharp sell-off, triggered by the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike and subsequent appreciation of the yen against the U.S. dollar. The sell-off marks one of the worst declines in risk assets since the "Black Monday" crash of 1987.
According to QCP Capital, Ethereum has performed worse than Bitcoin since the deleveraging event, which may be due to Jump Crypto (the cryptocurrency division of Jump Trading) moving a large amount of Ethereum to exchanges.
l Bitfinex: Bitcoin may rise first and then fall
In the latest report, the Bitfinex research team analyzed the dynamics of the US economy and decision-making, Bitcoin's future expectations, cryptocurrency politics and regulation, etc., emphasizing that the trend of Bitcoin will be deeply affected by the Fed's decision, and believes that the realization of the interest rate cut may be a Sell the News event, which will cause Bitcoin to fall further. Although Bitcoin has recently fallen below $60,000, Bitfinex pointed out that it has actually risen by 32% since the plunge on August 5, which is mainly driven by the market's dovish remarks from the Fed. However, Bitfinex also believes that if the Fed decides to cut interest rates, although it will cause Bitcoin prices to soar rapidly, it may then fall back due to increased concerns about economic recession. Bitfinex emphasizes that despite the benefits of halving, Bitcoin's recent trend will be deeply affected by the Fed's decision, and the trend in August is the best proof.
Bitfinex speculates that Bitcoin may fall by 15-20% after the rate cut, and find support between $40,000 and $50,000. This is not a random prediction, but is based on historical data that Bitcoin's peak return rate in each cycle will drop by about 60-70%, as well as the gradual reduction of bull market volatility over the years.
2. Hot events
Web3 Field:
l Ripple plans to launch XRPL EVM sidechain in 2025
On September 3, Ripple announced key announcements released in South Korea and Japan this week. Ripple and the XRP community are committed to bringing new programmability, including smart contracts, to the XRPL development ecosystem through the XRPL EVM sidechain (already in progress) in 2025, and exploring native functions on the XRPL mainnet. In addition, the metaverse startup Futureverse has partnered with Ripple Custody to securely custody its assets. Futureverse has adopted the XRPL NFT standard, uses XRP as a Gas token on its Root network, and integrates with the XRPL DEX to provide network liquidity.
According to the official release of Ethena Labs, the second season of the Ethena protocol ended on September 2. During the second season, the supply of USDe increased from 1.3 billion to nearly 3 billion, and generated more than $105 million in revenue for the protocol. The third season rewards will automatically start on September 2, and users can view the available ENA through claim.ethena.fi on September 9 and claim it on September 30. In addition, Ethena launched sENA, a liquid and transferable staking token. Users need to convert locked ENA into sENA to receive rewards in the third season.
3. Hot topic narrative
Recently, there have been many voices of disappointment in the Ethereum ecosystem in the industry community, because the secondary market performance of Ethereum ecosystem projects in this cycle is not good enough, or it cannot meet the expectations of the community. The root cause may be dissatisfaction with the overall poor performance of altcoins. The phenomenon of obsession with infrastructure is not limited to the Ethereum ecosystem, and basically the entire Web3 is still at this stage. This situation is partly due to the limitations of Web3 value capture - fat protocols and thin applications.
Because most of the value is captured by the underlying chain, VCs are generally keen to invest in various layer1 and layer2. The rent collection logic of the protocol layer is relatively easier to obtain a high market value. Moreover, the technical narratives of various subdivided functional module projects are getting deeper and deeper. It may be that a project that is only responsible for a very small link in the entire industry has already reached the ceiling in the primary market valuation because of the addition of more innovative technologies such as ZKP and FHE. The secondary market performance will naturally experience valuation repair. However, this type of project has basically made no contribution to attracting new users and mass adoption. The hope of breaking through may still be at the application layer.
Recently, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin talked about the type of Web3 applications he hopes to see on Twitter, which must have two characteristics: they can be continuously useful; they will not sacrifice principles (no permission required, decentralization, etc.). From an investment perspective, two more can be added - they must have a certain ability to generate revenue, and preferably some positive externalities. For Web3 applications with these characteristics, Vitalik listed three specific directions: DEX, Decentralized Stablecoin, and Polymarket. Vitalik mentioned very bluntly that the things he "does not respect" are basically those whose attraction comes from some temporary sources that are not sustainable. He also gave the example of liquidity mining in 2021 (referring to the Token incentives of liquidity mining as a temporary source of income that is not sustainable).
4. Potential Catalyst
Data shows DOGS buyers are returning. DOGS, which was launched on August 26 following the arrest of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov in France, has undergone a highly volatile Token Generation Event (TGE) where over 400 billion tokens were distributed to users. The huge selling pressure caused the price of DOGS to fall from $0.0017 to $0.0010. However, hourly chart analysis shows a significant increase in the Money Flow Index (MFI), indicating increasing capital inflows into cryptocurrencies. MFI is a technical indicator that shows the level of capital inflows into cryptocurrencies. When it falls, it means that selling pressure is rising. On the other hand, an increase suggests that this is not the case. In the case of the Dogs, falling prices and rising Money Flow Index (MFI) suggest that selling pressure is easing and buyers are stepping in, forming a bullish divergence. This pattern usually indicates that prices may be about to rise. In addition, the derivatives market is also showing similar Optimism, as evidenced by the rise in funding rates. Higher funding rates indicate that buyers (longs) are paying sellers (shorts) to keep their positions open, which suggests more prevalent bullish sentiment.
Figure 1. DOGS financing rate
Source: Coinglass, Dot Labs
2. Attention Value-Hot Projects
1. Social media hot spots
Solana has received widespread attention on social media platforms recently, and its popularity continues to rise. The Solana ecosystem has grown rapidly in recent years and has become one of the major players in the cryptocurrency market. As of 2024, Solana's TVL has reached approximately US$4.8 billion, a 20-fold increase from 2023. The average number of daily active addresses on the Solana network has reached 1.3 million, and the number of monthly active addresses has exceeded 15.6 million, which is 20% higher than in 2023. Significant growth. Solana’s total economic value increased 53% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter to $151 million, demonstrating its continued activity in the cryptocurrency market. These data show that the Solana ecosystem will show strong growth momentum in 2024, attracting more developers and investors.
Key projects:
· IT
Recently, io.net and Chainbase have reached a strategic cooperation to jointly promote the training and application of the crypto-native AI model Theia. Both parties will make full use of the high-performance computing power provided by io.net to accelerate model training. In addition, io.net and Flock.io have jointly created Proof of AI (PoAI), an AI-centric proof-of-work and consensus mechanism. The system requires nodes in the decentralized network to complete AI training tasks to verify their integrity. Nodes that successfully perform these tasks can receive rewards from DePIN and the AI training network.
2. Smart money builds a position
Smart money holdings
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. VIEW (@ethervista /X)
The Ethervista standard sets custom fees that are paid only in native ETH, which are cleverly distributed to liquidity providers and token creators. A new mechanism is used for each swap to reward users with low gas costs. Protocol fees can be distributed to smart contracts and treasuries. A key feature of this model is that market makers and creators benefit from trading volume rather than token prices, thereby incentivizing long-term rather than short-sighted price behavior. Investors benefit from mechanisms that prevent rapid withdrawals, reduce market risks, and increase investment success rates. Ethervista plans to expand services to include ETH-BTC-USDC pools, provide loans, futures, and free flash loans, with the goal of becoming an all-in-one decentralized application.
2. FWOG (@solfwog /X)
FWOG is described as a community-driven meme coin, and its official website and related information do not provide specific founding team members or developers. However, there are reports that FWOG's CTO is a team member named @deecayz, who has shown past successful meme coin projects on Twitter, which suggests that FWOG's development team may be a small, meme-focused team rather than a large development company.
Smart money flows in
Source: ChainEDGE, Dot Labs
Project Introduction:
1. SunDoge (@sdg_eth /X)
A Governor with furry ears and aquamarine eyes, $SunDoge is known for his striking looks and sharp wit. Always impeccably dressed, he navigates the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrency every day, never resting on his laurels.
2. aura (@auracoinsolana /X)
Aura is the energy that people radiate. Everyone has aura to some degree. Having aura is one of the greatest compliments a person can receive. It means we have transcended to a new level through execution, knowledge and intuition.
3. Attention Value-Sector Rotation
1. Hot topics
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
2. Inside the sector
Source: Dune, Dot Labs
