Author: Galois Capital
Compiled by: TechFlow
It seems that the narrative in the crypto space has become less strong since Twitter’s default algorithm changed, thanks to AlokVasudev for the heads up. I’d guess that about half of crypto Twitter users still stay in the “For You” feed that drives TikTok-like interactions.
Because of the upcoming election, this feed tends to show more controversial political topics. The other half of users are in the "Following" feed, which may or may not have had its algorithm changed.
Regardless, long-term narratives seem more difficult to form when attention is so fragmented. As a result, nothing seems to last, and the cycles of narrative appear to be very short-lived and lacking in permanence.
Furthermore, we are in a phase of the cycle that is full of copycat behavior, as we have a vague sense of an overabundance of infrastructure and a shortage of killer apps, with few projects truly achieving product-market fit.
DriftProtocol is leveraging the success of Polymarket to launch a prediction market. Meanwhile, sunpumpmeme and ethervista are also imitating pumpdotfun.
From one perspective, the industry seems to have run out of ideas for application innovation, so copying successful projects is the best strategy. From another perspective, Polymarket and pumpdotfun may have benefited unexpectedly from changes in the Twitter algorithm.
Highly controversial political topics in the “For You” feed may have increased Polymarket users’ willingness to pay attention. You might think that this phenomenon is intertwined with the fact that the upcoming election is considered one of the most important for the industry.
I can’t help but wonder if this is a reflex mechanism. Perhaps greater political polarization and attention to cryptocurrencies leads to more political donations, which in turn leads to more attention and discussion of cryptocurrencies by politicians, which ultimately leads to more crypto Twitter users paying attention to politics.
In other words, is it possible that as industry pays more attention to politics, politics also pays more attention to industry?
From another perspective, the algorithmic changes that prevented the long-term narrative from forming may have inadvertently benefited pumpdotfun and its short-term narrative.
When attention spans become fragmented and time becomes shorter, complex mechanism design problems become too cumbersome for those who are driven by dopamine. At the same time, people’s propensity to gamble increases, similar to what happened when stocks rose when Robinhood gamified trading.
This leads to two questions:
1) How do we return to a better time?
2) If there is no way back in time, which coins will perform well amid the continued attention deficit of crypto Twitter users?
For the first question, I think we are already starting to feel dopamine fatigue due to the effects of accelerationism. Once this ends, I can foresee people turning to higher quality options, rejecting modernity and returning to authenticity. This could be a moment of neo-reactionism for cryptocurrencies.
For the second question, while waiting, we might as well look for some easy-to-understand and stimulating projects to pursue short-term pleasure. In this case, you may need to act quickly to avoid falling into the dilemma of addiction.
