Is the bull still there? Will it take 25 years for the bull market to come? Is it the last chance to get on board? Will there still be a simultaneous rise of all the coins?

Let me start with my personal opinion: the bull market is still there, and it is currently in the transition stage to the mid-term of the big bull market. The bear market will begin in the second half of 2025. The market clean-up should be over soon. Now is the last chance to get on board. It is suitable to buy $BTC , $ETH and $BNB . There will not be a simultaneous rise of all coins. Don't buy altcoins anymore.

① Is the bull still there? It takes 25 years to become a bull market, and 73700 is just a bull market?

There are ghost stories everywhere in the market now. In fact, this may mean that it is an opportunity. Just like when the 25,000 bull market was lurking last year, how many people thought that it would go to 23,000 or even break 20,000 for a second time? Some people in the square think that 25,000-73,700 is a continuation of the small bull market, not a real bull market. But in fact, if we review the previous K-line, we can know that the cyclicality of BTC has not weakened, but the volatility of BTC in each cycle is decreasing.

This is also easy to understand. With a larger market capitalization, the liquidity plate is also larger, and the volatility is naturally lower. In any previous bull market with greater volatility, BTC bulls have never risen above the peak of the previous bull market. In addition to the cyclical nature, this round of volatility is also significantly lower than before due to the entry of institutions. In 2020, there were many more days with a 10% increase or decrease in a day than now. If 32,000 is taken as the top of the bull market, the price is basically close to half of the top of the previous bull market. Therefore, on the whole, I think it is more likely that the bull market will end in August 23, rather than 73,700 in March 24. The big bull will end around March next year, and the top of this cycle is speculated to be around 130,000.

②Last chance to get on board?

This involves short-term judgment, which I am not sure about, and I can only give my personal opinion. I think the wash from March to now is the connecting stage in the middle of the bull market cycle, and it should be bottoming out now. This round of bull market is very painful (of course, if it turns out to be a bear market later, it will be a slap in the face), and the wash is unprecedented. Therefore, if you don’t have a position, now is the last chance to get on board and buy mainstream coins.

BTC and BNB are generally recognized by everyone, but ETH is controversial. In fact, I am personally disappointed with the trend of ETH this year. You can follow your own way. BTC and BNB are also high-quality assets. ETH has been too weak since March, but I still think that ETH needs liquidity and will rise only when the chain is active, so let's give it some chances. In fact, when ETH plummeted in 2018, V God was tortured and said helplessly, "Can you stop asking about the price?", and then said, "If ETH has no value, then no coin in this market has value." In fact, it's almost the same. It's true that ETH is dragged down by a bunch of L2s, but SOL has nothing special to show for it. The main network has crashed several times. If ETH has no value, the "Microsoft of Web3" will naturally not be as good as SOL, which is also in the POS track. Instead, it may be KAS (a POW altcoin that is not listed on Binance, and I didn't buy any of it). Of course, I currently think ETH is valuable, so I still hold some.

③Will there be a situation where all the coins rise simultaneously? Which copycat should I buy?

This is the part of this article that I am most confident about. This thing can make me eat my phone. The rise of all coins is really something that only Shabi, an analyst who has only experienced one round of bull and bear markets, can engrave. From the perspective of the currency circle, the bull market in history has only occurred in 2021. How many projects in the market are waiting for liquidity to increase? Binance has listed so many junk projects. Can it make all the coins rise? (Of course, I fully support Binance to list junk projects. As long as I mine new coins, I will scold those who don’t mine.) Then think about it, when is 2021? QE, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate is directly reduced to 0. Can QE be compared with conventional interest rate cuts? This round of interest rate cuts basically stopped at 3.0 if there was no epidemic. Can the liquidity at that time be compared with 2021?

There is less hot money than in 2021, and there are more projects than in 2021. How can all the coins soar? Not only does all the coins not soar, but it is not an indicator of this round of bull market! If the analysts' mouth can make all the coins soar, BTC would have been hundreds of thousands of dollars long ago. Since the outbreak of this round of bull market, in addition to the inscription fever and the zoo, are there other sectors with obvious money-making effects that beat the mainstream coins? BTC has doubled from 25,000 to 73,700, and the cottage in hand has tripled. Isn't that buying for nothing? Of course, there will definitely be a sector with an obvious money-making effect in the next wave of market (generally 5-10 times), because such a wealth effect is needed to attract off-site hot money to join, but I'm too lazy to find it! Why spend time and effort looking for these cottages? When I was young, I didn't know the fragrance of big cakes, so I mistakenly filled my warehouse with cottages! Unless you are confident that you can find the sector with an explosive money-making effect before the rise!