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Toncoin price is retesting its key support zone between $4.83 and $5.19, which, if not broken, could be followed by an upward move.
Supply Distribution data shows that a cohort of whales purchased TON during the recent price drop.
A daily candlestick close below $4.83 would invalidate the bullish thesis.
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Manish Chhetri
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Toncoin Price Is Poised For A Rally If Key Support Holds At Key Level
Cryptocurrencies | 02/09/2024 09:38:53 GMT | Automatic translation See original article
Toncoin price is retesting its key support zone between $4.83 and $5.19, which, if not broken, could be followed by an upward move.
Supply Distribution data shows that a cohort of whales purchased TON during the recent price drop.
A daily candlestick close below $4.83 would invalidate the bullish thesis.
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Toncoin (TON) price is retesting a crucial support zone on Monday, trading steadily around $5.20 in the early European session. Recent moves by large investors suggest that if Toncoin is able to hold above this key technical level, a rally for the Telegram-related token could be on the horizon.
Toncoin shows potential for a rally
Toncoin price is retesting a key support zone between $5.18 and $4.83. This zone roughly coincides with three important support levels:
The ascending trend line, drawn joining multiple lows since late February.
The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $5.21, drawn from a low of $3.32 on March 17 to a high of $8.28 on June 15.
The lower band of the volume profile (the total volume traded at a given price during a certain period on ascending volume) at $5.25.
All the above levels form a key reversal zone. On Monday, TON is trading steadily, hovering around $5.20. If the $4.83 level holds, Toncoin price could rally 30% to retest its daily resistance level at $6.23.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Awesome Oscillator (AO) on the daily chart have dipped below their neutral levels of 50 and zero, respectively, suggesting that momentum remains weak. If the bulls are indeed making a comeback, then both momentum indicators must cross above their respective neutral levels. Such a development would add a tailwind to the recovery rally.
Santimentâs Supply Distribution metric shows that the number of whales holding between 100,000 and 1 million TON tokens has dropped from 4.01 million on August 26 to 3.2 million currently. Meanwhile, wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million TON increased from 0 to 1.11 million in the same period.
This development shows that the first cohort of whales might have fallen prey to the capitulation event. In contrast, the second set of wallets took advantage of the opportunity and accumulated Toncoin at a discount during the recent price crash, which was triggered by the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov in France.
Although on-chain metrics and technical analysis support the bullish outlook, if Toncoin closes a daily candlestick below $4.83, the bullish thesis would be invalidated by creating a lower low on the daily chart. This development could see Toncoin price drop an additional 11% to retest its next daily support at $4.27.
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