After Bitcoin fell to a low of $57,116 yesterday morning, it rebounded and reached a high of nearly $59,500 this morning, returning to the trading intensive zone for nearly a month. As of press time, the price was $59,379, up 3.44% in the past 24 hours. As the US market was closed last night for Labor Day, it is expected to open with large fluctuations tonight. Whether the current resistance can be converted into support remains to be seen, but if it falls further, the possibility of testing $54,500 cannot be ruled out.
Ethereum performed even more strongly, reaching a high of $2,565 this morning and trading at $2,533 as of press time, up 4.34% in 24 hours.
In the past 24 hours, the crypto market has seen a liquidation of approximately $77.75 million, with more than 32,000 people being liquidated.
Bitcoin had a liquidation intensity of $320 million at both $58,500 and $59,800. Despite the unpredictable volatility, when the price approached $57,000, the long order liquidation intensity of exchanges such as Binance, OKX, and Bybit reached $1.4 billion, indicating that investors still tend to go long.
As the world's largest digital currency by market value, Bitcoin is facing severe tests in September this year. Historical data shows that September is often not friendly to Bitcoin, and negative returns usually occur, which is called the "September effect". In the past ten years, Bitcoin has only achieved positive returns three times in September, with an average return rate of -4.78%, making it one of its worst performing months.
Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out on social media that September usually brings negative returns to Bitcoin, continuing the past trend. This has raised concerns about the price trend of Bitcoin in the coming weeks, and the market is closely watching the possible impact of several key factors.
However, some believe that this September could break the previous downward trend.
Data shows that Bitcoin fell 8.73% in August, which may pave the way for a rebound in September. History shows that in 43% of cases, a drop in August usually brings a rise in September, suggesting that the worst period may be over. Many people believe that although the recent macroeconomic news has little impact on Bitcoin, the asset may fluctuate between $58,000 and $65,000.
Outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs have also slowed. According to data from Farside Investors, these investment vehicles have experienced steady outflows over the past four days.
Market expectations for the upcoming September are divided. Analyst Stockmoney Lizards believes that September may be a critical moment, while other analysts are more cautious. It is worth noting that a large Bitcoin holder or institution recently transferred about 2,364 Bitcoins (worth about $140 million) to Binance. Such large transfers tend to exacerbate negative market sentiment.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that this round of Bitcoin bull market has lasted for 628 days and has not yet reached the typical peak, and it may take some time to reach the peak. Historically, Bitcoin bull markets usually last about 796 days, so the current adjustment may be a buying opportunity.
Bitcoin needs to break through multiple resistance levels to resist the "September effect". Currently, Bitcoin is struggling to return to $60,000, an important psychological level that investors are watching. Currently trading at around $58,000, a break above $66,000 would indicate a potential bullish trend. Analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that if Bitcoin continues to hover below key levels, the bear market may continue.
Technical analysis shows that if Bitcoin breaks out of the descending channel, it could rise to $68,500 or even retest the $72,000 level. However, if selling pressure persists, it could fall to $53,000 or even $47,000, which could provide buying opportunities for investors.
Whether Bitcoin can overcome its historic downturn in September depends in part on the Fed’s policy. If the Fed cuts interest rates in September, it may enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value, especially against the backdrop of a weaker dollar, as more investors may turn to risky assets such as Bitcoin.
The market is also watching the release of former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao from prison on September 29, which may trigger bullish sentiment in the market. In addition, Bitcoin's MVRV ratio is in the "opportunity zone," indicating that current market conditions may be favorable for buying.
Another potential catalyst is the continued attention to Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). If the historical trend of alternating positive and negative months continues, ETFs could become a new buying force in September. Although many people are cautious, there are still some in the market who are optimistic about a significant price increase.
Bitcoin options trading data shows that bullish bets are concentrated on reaching $90,000 by the end of September, indicating growing optimism. Many traders expect Bitcoin prices to rise sharply, even reaching $100,000 by the end of the year. This confidence is evident from the concentration of open interest at high strike prices.
Despite the challenges, there is reason to be optimistic about Bitcoin’s performance in September. While the “September effect” has historically been unfavorable for Bitcoin, the potential for rate cuts, strong support levels, and bullish sentiment in the options market may help Bitcoin buck historical trends.
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