Let me tell you my overall opinion on Bitcoin. Either it doesn't test below 55,000, or it tests a big one - temporarily looking at 45,000.
I haven't updated in the past few days. After a rough reflection, I feel that short-term trading is meaningless.
In the garbage market, I get one or two points a day, and I am tired of watching the market.
It's better to take a good rest, relax and learn.
At present, I personally think that the crypto market has basically reached a critical point, and I will gradually turn to long-term spot layout.
A few days ago, I updated a long article on the fundamentals of interest rate cuts, but I found that most retail investors on the square don't seem to pay much attention to this kind of thing.
As the article said, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, and it is in line with expectations, with a high probability of 25 basis points.
But it will create disputes to cover up the passive situation of having to cut interest rates.
Recently, frequent disputes have begun to emerge.
In addition, why do I say in the title that if you don't test below 55,000, you may test a big one and break the previous low.
Because everyone has been looking forward to the second test from 49,000.
It's because when it was 49,000, most people didn't buy the bottom due to panic, and then the speed of the pull-up was too fast, which led to missing out.
If most people have bought the bottom, they don't care about your second test, they just want you to go one-way quickly and not pull back.
Including voting data, retail investors with empty or light positions account for the vast majority. If the second test is in place for you, it just happens to take most retail investors on board, and then directly pull up.
It's unlikely. The trading rhythm in recent months, the main force is not so stupid that it will reverse and take retail investors on.
So if you are easily given a chip position, and most people dare to buy the bottom at this position, it is generally a trap, and there is a high probability that it will fall sharply below.
So this is why I personally hold 30% of the spot and don't move.
Because since July, I personally have always believed that Bitcoin's control rate is actually very strong.
In this case, no one can say whether it will test the lower point or not. If it really doesn't test it, it won't miss the opportunity. If it really falls to the previous low, there are bullets to cover the position.
Including after the interest rate cut, compared with the US stock market, I personally am more optimistic about the potential of the crypto market.
