Odaily Planet Daily News Bitfinex Alpha said in its latest report that this month's US interest rate decision is expected to have a significant impact on Bitcoin's short-term volatility and long-term trend. Since the beginning of August, Bitcoin has risen by more than 32%, driven by market participants' expectations that the Federal Reserve will make dovish remarks. A 25 basis point rate cut may mark the beginning of a typical easing cycle, and Bitcoin may achieve long-term price increases as liquidity increases and recession concerns ease. On the other hand, a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut may lead to price increases, but may be followed by a pullback as recession concerns increase. Over the past week, we have seen spot holders reduce risk while perpetual market speculators try to "buy the dip", and we still observe a large number of open long positions in BTC perpetual contracts. Expecting a 15-20% drop when the rate cut is expected this month, the bottom of BTC could be between $40,000-50,000, as the cycle peaks in percentage returns are reduced by about 60-70% each cycle, and the average bull market retracement has also declined. But this logic could easily be overturned if macroeconomic conditions change. This is a time of uncertainty for traders. Historically, September has been a volatile month for Bitcoin, with an average return of -4.78% and a typical peak-to-trough drop of about 24.6%.