Summary of recent stock market news

First, the three major U.S. stock indexes all recorded gains last week, with the Dow hitting a new high for the second time and the S&P 500 also approaching a record high.

Earlier in August, the market fell sharply due to the poor performance of a number of U.S. economic data, especially the abnormally weak labor market, which led to investors' concerns about the U.S. economy falling into recession.

However, as more positive data were revealed, investor confidence gradually recovered, and the Federal Reserve released a signal of interest rate cuts, and the three major U.S. stock indexes finally rose in August.

At present, the market is more inclined to a 25 basis point reduction in the Fed's interest rate cut. In the absence of a large interest rate cut, it is a positive factor for the U.S. stock market, while the safe-haven function of the gold market is relatively weaker.

Secondly, since 2017, there has been a decline in September every year, with an average decline of 3.2%. This is undoubtedly the worst performing month of the year, far below the average monthly increase of 1%.

Analysis shows that some investors do "close" trading in the summer, and adding safe-haven gold to the portfolio may provide psychological comfort during traditionally turbulent times. Historically, conflicts and market crashes often break out in the summer, when trading desks are understaffed and senior executives are absent, volatility can be heightened.

On the other hand, gold faces an inherent headwind when September arrives, as September is also traditionally the strongest month for the U.S. dollar, meaning traders using non-U.S. currencies buy less with their money.

Gold is up nearly 22% this year and 8% since July, supported by strong central bank buying, increased safe-haven demand due to geopolitical tensions, and strong buying of physical gold bars in the OTC market.

There is the issue of the Fed cutting interest rates in September this year. The market currently has no doubts about the rate cut. Based on the recent economic data released by the United States, there is little possibility of a sharp rate cut. The actual announcement should be close to expectations, so the chances of a historical cyclical retracement are high for us. #非农就业数据即将公布 #美联储何时降息？ #Telegram创始人获保释