QCP Explains: What Data Does Bitcoin Await to Rise?

According to QCP’s Weekend Report dated August 31, 2024, the crypto market this week saw Bitcoin reject highs of $65,000, reversing last week’s gains and retreating to the $58,000-$60,000 range.

BTC spot ETFs saw four consecutive days of outflows, with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF in particular seeing its first outflow since May (-$13.5 million).

On the inflation front, US PCE data came in lower than market expectations (2.5 percent annually versus 2.6 percent expected), raising the possibility of a dovish Fed stance in the fourth quarter. Stocks ended the month on a high note, and the Dow index hit a new record.

What’s next?

A lower-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data next week could confirm a strong case for a U.S. rate cut in the fourth quarter starting in September. The probability is currently at 33% (25bps) and 67% (50bps).

Given that recent macro news has had little impact on the crypto market, BTC is likely to continue trading in the $58,000-$65,000 range in the short term. The market awaits positive catalysts to break out of this range.