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Therefore, the first rate cut is likely to be consistent with market expectations, 25 basis points, and at most 50 basis points.
Under this high probability event, the longest-lasting interest rate cut in the financial market has finally landed.
There is no doubt that the financial market will see a sharp drop when the news comes out. But it does not mean that there will be no turn back.
Because the rate cut is in line with market expectations, the market will not panic about the authenticity of the US economic recession.
Therefore, the financial market is a soft landing. In this case, the US stock market will fall sharply and consolidate for a period of time.
There is a probability that it will continue to rise in October, or even break a new high.
But there is no doubt that the rise is to cover up the chips that the US financial capital has thrown away and has not been sold out, and it is also to lure more retail investors who speculate or invest in US stocks.
Judging from the historical interest rate cuts of the Federal Reserve, after the interest rate hike cycle, the first two interest rate cuts are usually small adjustments, and finally a large interest rate cut begins.
The cycle corresponds to the end of the year or the beginning of 2025.
When retail investors realize that the risk has passed. It is not ruled out that the Federal Reserve will suddenly cut interest rates sharply.
The financial crisis has officially swept in. The financial market has ushered in a plunge.
So at present, we use the interest rate cut node to look at the big cake. If the bull market goes crazy before the interest rate cut and breaks the new high, the time may not be too urgent.
Before the final bull market arrives, it is likely that the interest rate cut will be implemented and the market will fall sharply and consolidate for a period of time.
The last wave of crazy bull and copycat market will start before September to the end of the year.
As a retail investor, you need to grasp this period of time.
The views are personal subjective views and are for reference only.
