Reasons why BTC is not moving + personal opinion



If you look at the market, it's been about five months, six months, and there haven't been any major changes.

Liquidity is gradually drying up and short-term funds are gradually decreasing.
Therefore, some people may feel that short-term fluctuations are larger.
But has volatility really increased? Can the past three weeks’ movement be considered as such?

In fact, volatility has decreased significantly. The reason volatility appears to have increased is most likely simple psychology.

We cannot just focus on this mentality, but must objectively understand the current situation and make "hypotheses" about the possible consequences of this situation.

I’m not talking about the ups and downs.

Situations where short term liquidity and volatility become extremely low...thinking about why this happens, what this situation might lead to, and how to be prepared can create a situation that is more advantageous than the person next to you 'up or down'.

Take your time, but don't be lazy.
Now is the time to be most diligent. Once the market starts to rise, I will become lazy.


$BTC


Current situation

▪️The US GDP data released yesterday was 3%, higher than expected, indicating that the US economy remains strong. With these positive data, the market has seen an upward trend in the short term.

▪️However, due to volatility, the data release has a serious impact on the market as always. Now, all eyes are on the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data to be released at 20:30 today. The data will send a strong signal on whether inflation is under control and whether the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in September.

Strategy Update 📈



1) Short-term scenario



🟢Positive PCE scenario:


If the PCE data is lower than the previous level (2.6%) or in line with expectations, it means the Federal Reserve may slow down or stop raising interest rates.


In this context, risk appetite increases and we may see new upward momentum in cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin.

The first target will be a close above $60,160 again. Above this level, the momentum picks up and a test of the intermediate resistance of $61,160 is likely.


Once this resistance is overcome, the target range is $61,900 to $62,665, which could be a major milestone in the bull run.







🔴 Negative PCE scenario:


If the PCE data is better than expected, it means that inflation is not under control and the Fed is likely to continue raising interest rates in September. In this case, we may see a new wave of cryptocurrency sales.


In this case, the key support level to watch is $59,500. A close below this level could strengthen the downtrend and result in a drop back to the $56,000-$52,000 area.


2) September expectations



▪️If macroeconomic data returns to positive territory, especially if PCE data points to lower inflation, we could see the start of a new bull run in cryptocurrencies in September.


The market is likely to recover in the first week of September, and cryptocurrencies are likely to rise as investors’ risk appetite strengthens. In particular, expectations that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates will increase demand for risky assets.


In this case, Bitcoin could see strong gains into the new month and re-target previously tested resistance levels.

▪️But one should not forget that there is always volatility in the market. Both positive and negative situations can lead to rapid changes during September. So I will keep updating and we will focus on the area of ​​liquidity!


in conclusion:



The current price trend has already reflected the positive impact of GDP data, but the really key data is PCE, which will be released at 20:30 today.


Depending on the data results, the price may break through the resistance level and try to enter the short liquidation area. We should also consider the possibility of entering a bull market in September or experiencing a new correction after the data is released.


A close around $61,000 or above would support the uptrend but caution is advised if it falls below this level.