The September interest rate cut window is approaching. Will the interest rate be cut as scheduled? Will there be a bull market in the futures market this year?
The market trend of the futures market since July can be called garbage time.
It requires traders to adjust their rhythm quickly and have high adaptability during the trading session.
It is also a market trend that is not suitable for most retail investors to gamble. There is no need to play it as a krypton gold game and fantasize about the tiny possibility of getting rich in the short term.
For retail investors, all they need to do is wait for the opportunity and improve their trading awareness. Keep sufficient cash flow and seize certain opportunities.
This article will specifically describe my personal views on the September interest rate cut and the market analysis before and after the interest rate cut of the futures market.
The September interest rate cut window is very close, and there are only about 20 days left.
First of all, consider whether the United States will cut interest rates as scheduled in September.
1. Raise or lower interest rates?
This round of interest rate hikes in the United States did not achieve the purpose of harvesting, so the market also has a certain response to the possibility of interest rate hikes.
But the main point is that it is not a question of whether the Federal Reserve wants to cut interest rates, but that it has reached the time point when it has to cut interest rates.
The United States is now burdened with huge debts. If interest rates are raised again, how will the debts be dealt with? Will it default on its debts or start a hot war, with both sides dying?
Personally, raising interest rates again is tantamount to a suicidal act of risking everything. The probability is extremely low. The high probability is to cut interest rates and create disputes.
So we should consider the specific cuts and the extent of the cuts.
The authenticity of the news data released by the United States before is unknown until the non-agricultural data is revised down.
It has been revealed that most of the news is false data. The market is controlled to rise and fall only through the words of Powell of the Federal Reserve.
Release expectation management for the financial market. That is, as mentioned in the previous article, squeezing water into the sponge, but the sponge will always break.
Therefore, judging from the news released before, modifying the data means that the United States does not want to and will not admit that its economy is facing difficulties.
Then, if the interest rate cut is larger than market expectations in September, it is tantamount to announcing to the international community that its economy is indeed in recession and can no longer hold on.
But judging from the modification of the news and the concealment of the recession, the US is unlikely to cut interest rates significantly.
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