At present, 3-6 months old coins of Bitcoin account for more than 12.5% of the circulating supply, indicating that investors who have entered the market in the past half year (including the inflow of US ETFs) are still optimistic about the trend of Bitcoin in the second half of the year, and its structure is similar to The sell-off period in mid-2021 is also similar to what happened at the peak of the bear market in 2018.
From the chart below we see: A high proportion of 3 to 6 month holders means more Bitcoins have been accumulated in a shorter period of time, which may indicate that the market is in a critical period. Of course, we must also note that if these holders choose to take profits or stop loss selling, it may have a significant impact on the market price.
The peak of the bear market in 2018-2019:
At the peak of the bear market in 2018, Bitcoin prices fell sharply and the market experienced extreme panic. The proportion of Bitcoin held for 3 to 6 months also reached a relatively high point during this period.
This period is characterized by the transfer of large amounts of Bitcoin from long-term to short-term holders, which then leads to further selling as the price continues to fall. Subsequently, Bitcoin once again experienced the 312 washout and ushered in a bull market.
2021-2022 mid-term sell-off period:
In mid-2021, Bitcoin prices experienced a sharp correction after experiencing a rapid rise. At this time, the proportion of Bitcoin held for 3 to 6 months also increased significantly, indicating that some investors entered the market when the price rose, but quickly turned into potential sellers when the price fell back, leading to further market selling. Subsequently, Bitcoin ushered in the famous 519 washout, once again starting the second half of the bull market.
