Yesterday's data had little impact overall, and was similar to market expectations. The main reason was the revised value of GDP. This data was indeed a bit unbelievable. It felt like the United States had done it on purpose to prepare for a rate cut. ,
This data means very clearly that the United States is not in recession and the economic resilience is still very strong. It is this GDP data revision that most people in the market probably did not expect, especially to appease the market before the rate cut. You see, my GDP data is still strong, so there is no need to worry about a recession. The rate cut is also to cater to the market, not to prevent an economic recession.
The biggest problem now is that the market recognizes this revised data. The market's game point is the recession expectation and the rate cut expectation. The data just released was bearish for the rate cut expectation, but the financial market did not fall, indicating that the rate cut expectation has been digested with the Fed's speech.
On the contrary, the hype of recession expectations is still there. This data weakens the recession, so the future recession can be landed smoothly and the rate cut will come. From this point of view, it has become a double positive. However, this revised GDP data will put pressure on the initial GDP value in the third quarter. If it is not as good as this revised value, will the market talk about recession again?
Therefore, this revised data is a double-edged sword, and its impact on future market conditions may be raised again in the near future. The preliminary GDP value will be announced in October, and there were too many news in September. Market spikes and gates are now the norm.