Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Fu He How (@vincent 31515173)
In the past 24 hours, there have been new developments in the arrest of Telegram founder Pavel Durov.
At 9 p.m. Beijing time last night, Pavel Durov was first taken to the court by the French police from the Anti-Fraud Office where he was previously detained, awaiting the court's charges; the court finally prosecuted Pavel Durov at around 3:30 a.m. Beijing time today. Pavel is required to provide a 5 million euro (about 5.44 million U.S. dollars) deposit, report to the police station twice a week, and is prohibited from leaving French territory. After the above conditions are met, Pavel Durov can be released under judicial supervision.
Odaily Planet Daily analyzes the impact of the latest developments in Pavel Durov’s arrest on the TON ecosystem.
Telegram founder's release has become a public opinion storm, TON ecosystem market fluctuates violently
During the development of the incident, different time points had a great impact on the market trend of TON ecological tokens last night. Especially during the period when Pavel Durov was taken to the court by the French police from the anti-fraud office where he was previously detained, ecological tokens such as TON, NOT and DOGS experienced large fluctuations. The Toncoin market trend is shown in the figure below:
The first wave of market fluctuations: affected by Pavel Durov being sent to court.
At 21:00 last night, according to Cointelegraph, Telegram founder Pavel Durov was escorted to the Paris court by car from the anti-fraud office where he was detained.
As soon as the news came out, the Toncoin market fell. The Toncoin market trend chart marked 1, the decline in this stage reached 3%, and the price fell to 5.3 USDT. This decline in the market is understandable. Pavel Durov is about to face court charges, and investors are selling on a small scale.
The second wave of market fluctuations: Affected by the "fake news" that Pavel Durov was released from the police station, the public mistakenly believed that Pavel Durov was free.
I thought I had to wait for the outcome of Pavel Durov’s court charges, but I never expected that social media, led by the X platform, was flooded with news that Pavel Durov had been freed. Almost every minute, there were users expressing their joy at Pavel Durov’s release on social media, and even many crypto project parties posted articles.
At the same time, the TON ecosystem market also rebounded rapidly. As shown in Note 2 of the Toncoin market trend chart, the market rose rapidly, with a short-term increase of more than 12.8%, and the highest price reached 5.991 USDT. Other related tokens such as NOT, DOGS, etc. also rebounded significantly, with increases of more than 10%.
Afterwards, many media and celebrities refuted the rumor online, saying that Pavel Durov had to be sent to court to await final charges because the final deadline for his arrest had expired. Therefore, the "release" was only from the police station, and did not mean that Pavel had been freed. Social media users uncovered this blunder, and it was a fake news first posted by a user named "what zhe media hides".
But from another perspective, this is not fake news. Pavel Durov was indeed released by the police station and was sent to court by the police.
Then the market continued to fall, with a drop of 10%. Toncoin fell to 5.37 USDT, and other TON ecological tokens all fell by more than 10%.
The third wave of market fluctuations: affected by Pavel Durov being prosecuted by the court and restricted from leaving the country.
According to previous reports by AFP and RIA Novosti, the court needed to file a lawsuit against Pavel Durov before 2 a.m. Beijing time on the 29th. However, it was not until 3:30 a.m. that the Paris court disclosed relevant information and filed eight criminal charges against Telegram founder Pavel Durov. To be released under judicial supervision, Pavel Durov must provide a 5 million euro (about 5.44 million U.S. dollars) deposit, report to the police station twice a week, and is prohibited from leaving French territory.
Affected by this news, as shown in the market trend chart 3, the price of Toncoin dropped rapidly to 5.12 USDT, a drop of 9.6% during this period. It then rebounded to 5.437 USDT.
In the article "Telegram founder arrested, more than half of funds withdrawn, will TON ecosystem suffer a devastating blow?", when Pavel Durov was first arrested, TON ecosystem-related projects said that it would not affect the normal operation of the project. But the market trend does not "lie", and last night's oolong incident shows the importance of Pavel Durov to the TON ecosystem.
The arrest of the founder sparked heated discussions across the Internet. Whose interests did Telegram violate?
Telegram is a global instant messaging software with 1 billion active users. The subsequent impact of the arrest of its founder has affected many industries and user groups.
Telegram has always been known for its strong encryption against censorship, so much so that it has become the core position of many groups advocating free speech, and is most commonly used in anti-authority protest movements around the world. Telegram has become a key tool for organizing and mobilizing protests of all kinds, thanks to its anonymity, flexible group capabilities, and ability to function even with limited internet access.
Therefore, many "freedom fighters" and well-known figures in the crypto industry who support Pavel Durov updated their profile pictures to the Resistance Dog logo, which was drawn and named by the founder of Telegram in 2018, to express their support for Pavel Durov.
In addition to its prominent position in civil movements, Telegram has also become an important channel for intelligence organizations in various countries to export their opinions and interests.
Tucker Carlson, a well-known American media figure, political commentator and writer, released an interview video with Mike Benz, a former US State Department Cyber Department official, today. In the video, the two sides discussed the real reason for Pavel Durov's arrest. Mike Benz said: "Telegram has always been an important channel for intelligence organizations of various countries to explore information abroad. Every year, the country's funding for Telegram is as high as billions of dollars."
When talking about the real reason for Durov's arrest, Mike Benz said: "After being sanctioned, Russia used Telegram to monitor Ukraine. At the same time, Russia used Telegram as a tool to control foreign speech, such as in the Middle East and Africa. The role of Telegram is obvious."
48 hours after Pavel Durov was arrested, Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire published a short article on the X platform titled "The World is underestimating the significance of the Pavel Durov arrest", in which he mentioned Pavel Durov's previous experience of being sanctioned by Russia, and said that restricting Telegram was unfair, and that European and American countries, which have always been known for their freedom of speech, are gradually moving towards dictatorship.
In addition, after Pavel Durov was arrested, celebrities such as Musk, US and Russian officials expressed their opinions. The details are included in "The Aftermath of the Arrest of Telegram Founder: US-Russia Confrontation, Industry Support, Buying Coins to Express Determination, and People's Movement". You can refer to it for yourself.
Pavel Durov: Whether he can regain his freedom in the future remains uncertain
Although Pavel Durov was released due to the expiration of the maximum detention period in France, he still did not gain true freedom. The court charged Pavel Durov with up to 8 counts: conspiracy to operate an online platform for illegal transactions, including organized crime; refusal to provide data required by the authorities for lawful interception; conspiracy to provide software or data to attack automated data processing systems; dissemination of child exploitation materials and participation in organized drug trafficking; fraud and conspiracy to commit crimes or misdemeanors; money laundering activities related to organized crime; providing confidentiality password services without proper declaration; importing passwords means only guaranteeing identity authentication or integrity checks.
In addition, Durov needs to be released under judicial supervision. The conditions for release include a bail of up to 5 million euros, reporting to the police twice a week and restrictions on leaving France. All this proves that Pavel Durov has been "under house arrest" in France.
Mario Nawfal, a well-known KOL on the X platform, wrote that based on the court's charges, Pavel Durov could be sentenced to up to 10 years in prison.
At the same time, according to the US political news website Politico, Telegram co-founder Pavel Durov's brother and co-founder Nikolay is also wanted by French authorities. However, Russian media reported that the prosecutor's office disclosed that the case of Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was not related to the arrest warrant of his brother Nikolay.
Regardless of whether the two cases are related, as mentioned above, the essence is that the existence of Telegram threatens the interests of relevant countries, and thus judicial control is imposed on its leaders.
In addition to facing charges from the French government, Pavel Durov is also being investigated by Swiss authorities for a criminal complaint from his ex-partner Irina Bolgar, which involves physical violence against his children, and is accompanied by multiple civil lawsuits.
But the case of Pavel Durov and his ex-partner Irina Bolgar has a long history, and it has only recently become known to the public after Durov was arrested in France.
Therefore, with the combined effect of information from multiple parties, although Pavel Durov was released briefly, he also faces a long court verdict. This involves the interests of many parties, so maintaining the status quo may be the best option.
Odaily Planet Daily will continue to follow up on the latest developments in the Pavel Durov case.
