Now the September rate cut is basically confirmed. Although it has been halved, the macro situation is still the same as in mid-2019. Why? Because the first rate cut was in July 2019, and it was a defensive rate cut. At that time, both the US stock market and#BTCfluctuated and fell. On the contrary, everyone knows the market trend until March 12, 2020.

Some say this time is different, and yes, it is different.
In the previous cycle, the epidemic started at the end of 2019, but not this time. However, there is a carry trade in Japan this time because Japan's interest rate hike has an impact on the global economy, mainly the US economy. At that time in 2019, Japan still had negative interest rates, but now it is positive.



On August 5, due to the 7.31 yen interest rate hike and the 4.3 US unemployment rate on August 2, which was the highest in the past two years, the expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut increased, which led to the liquidation of carry trades due to the narrowing of the interest rate gap between Japan and the United States, resulting in a major collapse of Japanese stocks and even the stock markets in the United States, South Korea, Australia and other regions were affected and suffered a large retracement or even circuit breakers, which greatly increased the market's attention to the next monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. BTC was not spared. So next, we need to pay attention.

In the crypto self-narrative, there were no futures or spot ETFs in 2019, but now BTC and ETH futures and spot ETFs have been approved and are already being traded.

The macro cycle was extended this time. The interest rate cuts started after the halving, and after the first rate cut, there was the US election, as well as FASB, etc.

On the other hand, the recession started after the interest rate cuts in 2019, which was the 312 incident. Even before the unemployment rate increased significantly in February 2020 (almost 90 degrees), the US stock market and BTC still fluctuated upward. Of course, the second and third interest rate cuts also came in Q4 of 2019. Until the 312 incident.



This time, first of all, the interest rate cut does not mean direct money release. Whether the final result is a soft landing or a recession is only an estimate. The actual situation still depends on the US economic situation, unemployment rate, inflation, Japan's monetary policy, etc.

As mentioned before, in 2019, before the recession and the surge in unemployment, the market did experience a volatile rise. As for this time, theoretically, the recession will not occur until January next year at the earliest. In the meantime, there will be a general election in November and the FASB in December.

So as I have said before, if you want a good market during the election, first of all, Japan should not cause trouble, the US economy should not decline, and the unemployment rate should not soar. Then you can still play for a while (of course, you can play for a while, but don't be too FOMO). Otherwise, just wait for the money to be released. Only by releasing the money can there be a crazy bull market like the one in 2021.

After all, the final form of monetary easing will definitely happen, it just takes time. Just think about 20 years and you will know. The money supply started in March 2020, and then it was released again in Q4 2020. Everyone knows the market conditions of US stocks and BTC.

PS: Regarding the election, especially Harris's policy proposals on behalf of the Democratic Party, Harris will have the second round of presidential election debate with Trump on September 10. You can pay attention to what they say, especially their remarks and proposals on encryption. See what new remarks Harris has.