One analyst is skeptical of the optimistic prediction that tokenized real-world assets (RWA) could be worth $30 trillion by 2030, arguing that 5% of that is a more realistic target.
“If the current 2-year CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 121% continues, we could see around $1.3 trillion in traditional assets tokenized by 2030,” Jamie Coutts, chief analyst at Real Vision, said in an August 27 post on X.
Tokenized Assets Chart (excluding stablecoins) | Source: Jamie Coutts
Asset tokenization is the process of issuing security tokens (a type of blockchain token) that represent real, tradable digital assets. These tokens represent anything from real estate and bonds to art and stocks.
In June, Standard Chartered Bank and Synpulse predicted tokenized RWA could reach $30.1 trillion by 2034.
While Coutts calls Wall Street's predictions "overly optimistic," even his more conservative estimate could have a significant impact on the Web3 ecosystem if it plays out the way he thinks it will.
He believes that if there were $1.3 trillion in real-world assets (RWA) on-chain, it would “create a huge flywheel effect” on other parts of the crypto ecosystem, such as NFTs, social platforms, and gaming.
What does this mean for Ethereum?
But he argues that “value accrual” on Ethereum — the platform favored by early TradFi asset issuers — will be difficult to calculate, due to the market share the layer 2 network will hold relative to the value held by the underlying Ethereum network itself.
“L2 can keep 95-99% of the revenue, the rest is paid to Ethereum as settlement fees,” he noted, adding that “it is unlikely that L2 will give up its bargain and allow Ethereum to scale L1. If Ethereum scales L1, it will capture more opportunities. Thus showing the dilemma of Ethereum at present.”
In June, consulting firm McKinsey & Company said tokenized financial assets had a “cold start,” but they are on track to reach a market size of around $2 trillion by 2030.
McKinsey & Company analysts added that tokenization needs use cases that offer benefits over traditional financial systems.
“One such example is bond tokenization. Hardly a week goes by without an announcement of a new tokenized bond issuance.”
Meanwhile, in April, RippleX senior vice president Markus Infanger said that research estimates the future value of tokenized markets at $16 trillion, about eight times larger than the total market capitalization of the entire cryptocurrency sector.
https://tapchibitcoin.io/13-nghin-ty-do-la-cho-rwa-duoc-token-hoa-vao-nam-2030.html
