The market panic index has reached a low point again. Yuanjian feels that it is still necessary to restart an article and give everyone a comprehensive analysis of the future trend.

Let's first talk about Ethereum, which is also the culprit that has caused everyone to suffer recently. As the most complete decentralized cryptocurrency so far, is its current technology really worthy of being the "second"? The current ETH/BTC exchange rate is extremely close to the historical low of 0.039. During this period, Vitalik had no choice but to call for ETH, but how many people in the market bought it? The spot Ethereum ETH is endlessly flowing out, and the performance of the ETH Foundation is even more regrettable. Based on the launch of L2, the main network upgrade, and the reduction of on-chain GAS revenue, Defi is equivalent to being paralyzed. Although Ethereum is still thinking about how to improve better infrastructure, its future is really in sight.

Back to the idea

First of all, from the perspective of market sentiment, we can see that most KOLs have changed from yesterday's call for an upper target of 70,000 to today's call for a lower target of 48,000. As the market's henchmen, they have indeed succeeded. The local market has begun to panic, causing those who dared to go long at 61,000-63,000 to no longer dare to go long at 58,000. Here, the intention of the market maker began to become apparent, and the market began to turn to a bearish layout.

From a technical perspective, the reason for this round of looking down to 4.8W is nothing more than the turning of the multi-day moving average. There is no support below the break and it turns to look down. But is it really that simple? Indeed, from the weekly structure, it encounters resistance from the moving average and goes in the opposite direction, and the target below is 5W, but is it too simple to look at the currency circle just because you can make money by looking at the technical aspects? From the distribution of chips, this round of downward movement has completed the liquidation of the concentrated chips below, and going down further will be lower-level low-leverage chips, so why bother? Will the dog dealer deliberately go down to 5W for this little bit of chips to give you the opportunity to increase your spot position or leverage? Let the bearish layout make a lot of money? Even let the bull market that has been laid for so long "die in the womb"?

At this time, seeing that the series of favorable factors expected by the market have not yet landed in the macroeconomic situation, as a play that has been performed for such a long time, its goal is not only to preserve the existing currency market, but also to attract foreign influxes like the violent bull market in 2021. On the eve of the historical cycle, wouldn’t it be equivalent to cutting off one’s own arms and foundation if there is such an untimely 10,000-point decline? Of course, the waterfall will definitely come, but it will definitely not be now.

Taken together, this is the current view of Farsight: Although the low point of this round of downward movement is suspended in the air, it is obviously the bottom. In the short term, the market will make several rounds of downward exploration around this round of low point to create the illusion of short suppression, but it will not refresh the previous low point, so that those who are bullish will be afraid to buy at the original point, and those who are bearish will be more determined. In this way, the purpose is achieved. #美联储何时降息？ #MtGox钱包动态 #美国7月PPI低于预期