The Treasury markets are facing unprecedented losses:
- Bloomberg Treasury Total Return Index: Down 11.0% from its 2020 peak, marking the largest drawdown in the past century.
- Recent Fed Rate Hikes: The downturn follows one of the swiftest Fed rate hiking cycles ever, with 525 basis points of increases over just 16 months.
- Historical Context: The previous largest drawdown, in the late 1970s, was 7.5%.
- Current ETF Performance: The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF ($TLT) has rebounded slightly, up 1% year-to-date after an initial 10% drop.
These developments indicate a significant shift in the bond markets.