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Weekly Review
This week, from August 19 to August 26, the highest price of Sugar Orange was around $64,995 and the lowest was close to $57,787, with a fluctuation range of about 12%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there are a large number of chip transactions around 63,000, which will have certain support or pressure.
analyze:
59000-63000: about 1.6 million pieces;
64000-68000: about 1.11 million pieces;
The probability of not falling below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%;
The probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Important news
Economic News
At the Jackson Hole conference on Friday, Powell said: The time has come for the Fed to adjust its monetary policy and it is not seeking further cooling of the labor market. The cooling of the U.S. labor market is "obvious" and is no longer overheated, and confidence in inflation returning to 2% has increased.
The market interpreted this as "Powell's strongest signal of a rate cut so far," saying he intends to take action to avoid further weakening of the U.S. labor market.
The US dollar plummeted and fell below 101 to 100.6 points, and the US dollar index is expected to fall for the fourth consecutive week, the longest losing streak since April 2023.
Matrixport research report, as gold, oil, US bonds and the US dollar are all close to support levels, a turning point may appear, and the US macro-economy will undergo major changes, but its impact will take several months to fully manifest. When US bond yields climb and gold prices rebound at the same time, it usually means that the economy is in a unique and somewhat contradictory environment, and BTC is likely to become the main beneficiary asset.
The interest rate market increased its bets on the Fed's rate cuts after Powell's speech, with the probability of a 50 basis point cut in September rising. It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by nearly 100 basis points before the end of the year.
Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," said the speech showed that Powell's shift in monetary policy had been completed and that Powell had shown an overall dovish stance.
Strategist Kathy Jones said the signal is very clear that the Fed is ready to cut interest rates and concerns about labor market conditions now outweigh inflation risks.
Strategist Elias Haddad said that with the Federal Reserve about to ease monetary policy and U.S. economic growth still quite strong, this is undoubtedly a shot in the arm for the stock market's rise, and the positive trend in the stock market is expected to continue until next week, or at least until the next employment data is seen.
The Fed minutes showed that a "vast majority" of members believed a September rate cut was probably appropriate and that easing monetary policy too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity or employment.
The US dollar index fell below 101 to 100.92 points, and Capital Economics expects the US dollar index DXY to fall to 98 by the end of 2025.
Encrypted ecological news
Company X, formerly known as Twitter, has released a list of its shareholders, revealing that several cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence-related companies were involved in investing in the platform when Elon Musk acquired it for $44 billion in 2022.
Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, said in an interview with CNBC that the possibility of Trump's election in November may boost asset prices, including BTC, and cyclical stocks, small-cap stocks and BTC will perform better. These are obvious policy differences.
Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, expressed optimism about the future of BTC, saying that “oversupply” seems to be coming to an end, which he interpreted as a positive sign for price trends, believing that BTC is still in its early stages and is a technology rather than a means of storing value.
Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon said the state plans to issue a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar in 2025, and the state is currently working to support the stablecoin through U.S. Treasury bonds and repurchase agreements.
Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Mid-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions
Long-term insights
Long-term investors' holdings
Illiquid Whale Positions
Exchange 30-day net position
High quality selling pressure
(The following figure shows the holding structure of long-term investors)
The chart shows that long-term participants of more than half a year are still continuing to buy.
Reduces the risk of a prolonged market downturn.
Demand began to increase.
(Figure below shows illiquid whale positions)
Special groups of whales also began to increase their purchases.
(Figure below shows the exchange's 30-day net position)
The market had entered an era of massive selling pressure since late June, and now, after a large amount of liquidation, the market's buying power began to gradually increase in late July, and the selling pressure began to decrease.
(Figure below: high-quality selling pressure)
High-quality selling pressure shows that the market has entered a state of low selling pressure, which is usually suitable for adding positions or partial buying in a bull market.
Mid-term exploration
Liquidity Supply
Positive sentiment on the Internet
USDC Purchasing Power Comprehensive Score
Realized market value by age group
Profit shock
(Figure below shows liquidity supply)
The liquidity supply is slowly declining, which may lead to a lack of upward momentum.
Due to the lack of overall volume, the speed may also slow down.
(Figure below: Network sentiment positivity)
The online sentiment is still rising and it is possible that the current trend state has not weakened.
Maybe the heat in the venue has not decreased, and under the current circumstances, the rest time may be slightly accelerated.
(USDC purchasing power comprehensive score in the figure below)
Institutional users still maintain a high demand, and the current growth in purchasing power may provide support for the overall market correction.
(The figure below shows the realized market value of each age group)
For chips from 24h to 3 months, the overall market value grows slowly.
It is possible that the main body of the current market is still supported by chips that have been held for a long time.
(The following figure shows profit shock)
A large profit shock may create resistance and hinder the market from moving upward.
Short-term observation
Derivatives Risk Factor
Option intention transaction ratio
Derivatives Trading Volume
Option Implied Volatility
Profit and loss transfer
New addresses and active addresses
Net Position of Bingtang Orange Exchange
Net position of the Auntie Exchange
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net positions
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: The risk factor enters the red zone and the risk increases.
(The figure below shows the risk factor of derivatives)
As the market rebounds, the risk factor is still in the red zone. Although the red zone means that the risk of derivatives is high, the impact of derivatives on whether the market will continue to rebound is low.
(The figure below shows the option intention transaction ratio)
Option trading volume and the proportion of put options both decreased slightly.
(Figure below shows derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume did not surge during this market rebound and is still at a medium-low level.
From a side perspective, this rebound has not yet ignited the market's full enthusiasm.
(The figure below shows the implied volatility of options)
Implied volatility was unchanged.
Emotional state rating: Neutral to strong
(The following figure shows the amount of profit and loss transfer)
After several weeks of decline, the positive market sentiment (blue line) finally rebounded this week, while the fear sentiment (orange line) continued to decline.
Whether the blue line will continue to rise in the future will still be the focus of attention on whether the market can rebound continuously.
(Figure below shows newly added addresses and active addresses)
New and active addresses are at low levels.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC inflows accumulate, ETH has moderate outflows.
(Figure below: Net position of Bingtang Orange Exchange)
BTC continues to flow out in small amounts, gradually digesting the large amount of chips that flowed in previously.
(The following figure shows the net position of E-Tai Exchange)
The net position of ETH exchanges is in a state of continuous outflow and accumulation. Although there are many bearish voices on ETH in the market, from the perspective of the net position of exchanges, the net position of ETH in exchanges has hit a new low again.
(Figure below shows high-weight selling pressure)
There is no high-weight selling pressure at present.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered significantly.
(Figure below shows the global purchasing power status)
America is still losing purchasing power.
(The following figure shows the net position of USDC exchanges)
USDC exchange net positions have rebounded significantly.
Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 56,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.
(The following figure shows Coinbase off-chain data)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 56,000 to 62,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000~70,000.
(Binance off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 56,000 to 62,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 65,000~70,000.
(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)
There is a willingness to buy at a price around 55,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 70,000.
This week’s summary:
WTR public real trading section:
Starting from February 2024, the actual status of funds will be disclosed on a regular basis every month.
Strategy: prudent strategy.
Initial capital amount: US$240,000.
Current capital: 255,600 USD. Rate of return: 6.5%
The drawdown of a new account with $120,000 opened in July was 2.5%.
Summary of news:
This quarter has seen many liquidations, compensations, and sell-offs by various governments at institutions such as Mentougou in 2022 and earlier.
Cryptocurrencies have been languishing amid selling pressure, lagging behind the Nasdaq and gold prices for a long time.
Now that many liquidations are coming to an end, the pressure on encryption has eased. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy turning point is approaching, which can allow encryption to quickly enter a new rhythm.
Keep up with the traditional capital bull market.
I don't know whether it is accidental or inevitable, but in every cycle, pancakes perform well from autumn to spring, and are sluggish in summer.
The performance in the last quarter after the halving in 2020 was extremely impressive, and we look forward to the performance in the fourth quarter of this year.
On-chain long-term insights:
Long-term investors continue to buy;
Special whales also began to increase their purchases;
Long-term net positions show that a large amount of selling pressure flowing into the market has disappeared and turned into withdrawals;
High-quality selling pressure shows that it has returned to the low selling pressure area.
Market setting:
Selling pressure is relatively low and the market is relatively stable at present.
On-chain mid-term exploration:
The supply of liquidity slowed down;
The positive sentiment on the Internet is still rising, and there is still a trend in the field;
There is still a high demand from institutional users;
The entry of new users slowed down;
There is a large profit impact in the current market, and resistance may need to be digested.
Market setting:
Slowdown
The trend is still there, but the volume growth in the market may slow down.
On-chain short-term observations:
The risk factor is in the red zone and the risk increases.
The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
Market sentiment status rating: neutral to bullish.
The overall net position of the exchange shows an accumulation of BTC inflows and a moderate outflow of ETH.
Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has recovered significantly.
Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 56,000 and a willingness to sell at 70,000.
The probability that it will not fall below 57,000-61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability that it will not rise below 71,000-74,000 in the short term is 67%.
Market Setting
The overall market sentiment is neutral to bullish. The market has reached the initial resistance range in the short term (near the short-term holder cost line of 63K). The short-term market performance may slow down the pace of short squeeze, and then further squeeze.
But the subsequent short-term ups and downs are no longer important; what is more important is the future main upward trend.
Risk Warning:
The above are all market discussions and explorations and do not provide any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious about and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the "WTR" Research Institute.
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