🚀 The September rate cut is a done deal: 25 basis points or 50 basis points, let's see my analysis!
📢 Last Friday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered an important speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. He said that it was time to relax monetary policy. This sentence seemed to inject a shot of adrenaline into the market, and the cryptocurrency market immediately ushered in a strong rise, breaking through the $6,400 mark at one point.
📈 At the same time, the market's attention is currently focused on the September FOMC meeting. Everyone speculates that the focus is whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points after the September FOMC meeting.
🔍 According to CME's "Fed Watch" tool forecast, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut on September 18 is 63.5%, while the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 36.5%. This shows that the probability of a rate cut in September is 100%, it's just a matter of how much it will be cut.
🧐 However, my personal opinion is that after the FOMC meeting in September, it is a more ideal strategy for the Fed to choose to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Why do I say that? See my opinion below!
📉 First of all, if the Fed directly cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September, it may be a major positive for the investment market, but it may also mean that the market faces the risk of entering a recession. Think about it, if you don’t dare to invest, will it still be good for the market?
📉 Therefore, the Fed may choose to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18, and I believe this will also be a positive signal for the entire investment market.
📊 Moreover, we can foresee that the Fed will officially start a new round of interest rate cuts in September. And the Fed is likely to formulate a detailed interest rate cut cycle table and strictly follow the plan and rhythm to carry out interest rate cuts. It is expected that the interest rate cut cycle will last for two to three years.
💡 There is reason to believe that during this interest rate cut cycle, the performance of various investment assets will be worth looking forward to. But the market is always full of uncertainty. While we are prepared, we must remain vigilant in the investment market.
👇 How much do you think the Fed will cut interest rates in September? If the interest rate cut cycle is established, will it affect your investment strategy? Leave your opinion in the comment section and let's discuss it together!
