Some people joke that BTC is almost becoming a stable currency. After many rounds of fierce battles, both bulls and bears were exhausted and exhausted. It was as if overnight, all the hypebeasts had gone on vacation to Mars. Such a deserted mainnet also seems to make people realize the absurd side of the "expansion" narrative. The more deserted and dull the moment, the less sound can be heard, as if this land has been forgotten by the public, and the more at this time, the more good the investment opportunity is.
Those who are motivated by media, especially mass media, to invest are most likely to lose money. They always forget when good opportunities come and return when they are bound to lose.
The price of Bitcoin was sideways yesterday. It broke through 65,000 in the morning and then fell back to 64,000.
Yesterday, the small group said that Bitcoin had a downward trend at the 4-hour level, but it was trading sideways all day yesterday with almost no fluctuations. According to past observations, this kind of sideways trend instead of falling is often followed by a big wave. It did not fall when it should have, and did not rise when it should have. It’s like a spring. The longer it is suppressed, the greater the force it will explode with once it breaks free.
Back to today's market analysis: From the K-line, the 1-hour and 4-hour levels are both in a downward trend, while the 12-hour and daily levels are still in an upward trend. The intraday pressure level is 66300 and the support level is 61700. Today is Monday, and the market fluctuations are generally large, so be careful!
It would be best if the trend comes sooner rather than later. If the general trend does not come, then we will just have to endure the market. To be honest, I really did not expect that the bull market could fluctuate near the historical high for half a year. This is the first time in the history of BTC.
In the last bear market, ETH had the highest certainty and the best ecosystem, so it was the most resistant to declines, but it lacked innovation and had a mediocre growth rate. SOL fell a lot and rose sharply. In this new trend, ORDI performed the best. Everyone bet on ORDI, but it was too heavy to pull, so it has the least decline and the least increase. On the other hand, SATS performed better.
Therefore, everything has two sides. It is impossible to have the highest certainty and the highest return. The performance of the stocks that everyone is optimistic about is generally not very good. The big dark horses are in places where no one cares about them. After the big dark horses become big white horses, the returns are greatly reduced and the liquidity is greatly improved!
Will the next period be the golden period of the market?
As mentioned before, interest rate cuts will not immediately bring about abundant liquidity, firstly because interest rate cuts are a gradual process, gradually reducing interest rates, and secondly because policy transmission takes time. However, interest rate cuts directly represent a policy shift, and the market will expect that liquidity will become more and more abundant in the future. "Expectations" are very precious, and expectations will continue to be strengthened in the next few months.
The second key point is that the recession has not really arrived yet. The unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls are still within controllable ranges. There is no substantial evidence of a recession. Judging from Powell's speech, the Fed is also guiding the market to think so. The third key point is the US election and Trump's coming to power. In the next few months, the expectation of loosening monetary policy will continue to strengthen. The recession has not yet arrived, and finally there is the Trump narrative.
Starting this month, the trading logic of the entire financial market has changed significantly, especially after Powell's speech, the market has made clear the direction. Gold rose to a record high; the US dollar index fell; the Russell 2000 rose faster; the crypto-altcoins rose sharply. Wood's Arkk is expected to rise soon. Why is this so? Because the logic behind the rise of these assets is based on "the liquidity that will be flooded in the future". In one sentence, it can be explained that when the Fed's policy changes, global risk assets will rise.
If Bitcoin tests 70,000 again, I think there is a high probability that it will go up, after all, the environment has changed significantly. In a bull market, you must seize the opportunity to hold a large position and give up the opportunity to make a profit. It is no longer cost-effective. Give up staking and stop wasting time and chips. Whether it is the Bitcoin ecosystem or the Inscription ecosystem, don't leave the market!
Take every day that follows seriously. The bull market is short and the bear market is long, and the bull market will be over in the blink of an eye.
