Bitcoin had a solid week and will likely close it above the $64k area. This means that the BTC price has pumped 8% this week, which is generally considered pretty solid for the king of all cryptos.
Altcoin Daily’s YouTube channel posted a viral video today featuring Ben Cowen. They provided some useful analysis on Bitcoin’s history patterns, global market outlook, and BTC price predictions.
US Economy and Market Outlook
The US Federal Reserve wants to manage inflation and the goal is to keep it around 2%. While inflation is trending down, there’s a possibility of a resurgence, similar to what happened in the 1970s. The Fed is also wary of avoiding deflation, which occurred in the 1940s due to overly tight monetary policies. Currently, the unemployment rate is increasing slightly but remains low at 4.3%.
There’s optimism that the economy could achieve a soft landing, with the Fed likely to cut rates in 2025. The performance of riskier assets, like Bitcoin, will depend heavily on when the Fed decides to loosen monetary policy.
On a side note: Bitcoin ETFs experienced a surge on August 25th, recording a $252 million inflow—the highest seen in a month.
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Show more +Show less – Bitcoin History and BTC Price Predictions
Moreover, Cowen discusses Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, where it typically peaks in the fourth quarter of the post-halving year. The current cycle resembles past cycles, especially the 2019 pattern, where Bitcoin had a strong rally followed by a significant pullback.
Looking ahead to 2025, the expectation is that Bitcoin could continue to perform well, especially if there’s a soft landing in the economy. However, Bitcoin might experience a few more months of stagnation before a possible breakout in 2025. While price predictions remain uncertain, Cowen suggests that reaching six figures is possible but not guaranteed.
Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin this bull run, especially since the merge. Historically, after a significant drop, Ethereum tends to rebound strongly. The current cycle suggests Ethereum might follow a similar pattern, potentially bottoming out soon before recovering in 2025.
As for the broader altcoin market, Cowen believes that 2025 could see altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, marking the beginning of a new altcoin season. This is expected to occur after Bitcoin dominance peaks, possibly between September and December 2024.
The ITC (Into the Cryptoverse) indicator provides various quantitative market analysis tools, including risk metrics, which help investors make decisions based on the current risk environment. Cowen advocates for using these indicators to guide investment strategies rather than trying to predict exact market movements.
Read also: Kaspa Still Has a ‘Long Way to Go’ to Catch Cardano, Solana, and Other Top Altcoins – Here’s Why
In terms of potential Bitcoin price targets, Cowen outlines several scenarios:
Base Case Scenario: Bitcoin may experience a few more months of consolidation or minor pullbacks before gaining momentum, staying around its current levels or seeing slight increases for the remainder of 2024.
Bull Case Scenario: If Bitcoin follows the historical four-year cycle pattern, it could potentially break above its previous all-time highs in 2025. Reaching six figures (over $100,000) is possible, but not certain.
Bear Case Scenario: If there’s a hard landing in the economy or unexpected negative events, Bitcoin might struggle to reach new highs and could top out before hitting six figures.
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