Bitcoin market outlook: dual scripts of no black swan and black swan

No black swan script interpretation:

With the change of months, the Bitcoin market has experienced twists and turns, rebounding from the trough to the high point, showing tenacious vitality. Assuming that there is no interference from black swan events (that is, no panic decline in the market on August 5), we foresee that Bitcoin will operate steadily in the range of US$49,000 to US$65,000. In particular, after the rebound from the high of US$66,000 is completed, the market may usher in a rational correction, with a range of approximately US$7,000 to US$8,000, and the expected retracement point will fall in the US$58,000 to US$59,000 area. If the whole of September remains calm and there is no major negative news impact, then Bitcoin is expected to make another effort in October to hit a new high, with the goal of directly pointing to the US$78,000 mark.

Black swan script warning:

However, the calmness of the market is always accompanied by unknown undercurrents. If we turn our attention to the global economy, especially the United States, although the policy level attempts to create an atmosphere of economic improvement, the grim reality of a surge in personal debt defaults and a continued rise in unemployment cannot be ignored. Although inflation has eased, the worsening unemployment rate is like a sword of Damocles hanging over our heads, which may trigger a black swan event of economic recession or even crisis at any time. Referring to the domestic market, the sharp drop in asset prices such as real estate, automobiles and stocks indicates that the value of global assets is facing the risk of revaluation. In this context, if the unemployment situation in the United States worsens further, the Bitcoin market may not be able to escape the impact.

Once the black swan comes, Bitcoin may repeat the tragic scene of the past plunge, with a single-day drop of 20%, or even a deeper 40%. It is not impossible, and the market catastrophe similar to that in March 2020 may reappear. In this extreme situation, the price of Bitcoin may plummet to around US$38,000, and the market will undergo a thorough reshuffle and reconstruction. But as history has shown, new opportunities are born after every crisis. With the introduction of subsequent rescue policies such as interest rate cuts, Bitcoin is expected to usher in a new round of strong rebound, rising again from the trough, doubling again, and reaching a new height of US$72,200 or even higher. #MtGox钱包动态 #币安Web3钱包