Wet firecracker for Bitcoin - For the moment, the year 2024 has had two parts: a bullish explosion and a consolidation/correction phase. Cash ETFs brought a craze that was sorely lacking during the bear market, and this allowed the king of crypto to regain the psychological round figure of $70,000. However, instead of taking advantage of this hype around ETFs, the king of crypto stalled, and a few months later he found himself at $50,000. Therefore, the performance of BTC in 2024 is less and less good, and the NASDAQ is even catching up with it. However, the accumulation seems to be back, and the return could bring volatility! Here is the bulletin of August 24!
ETFs still relatively calm before the start of the school year
As explained in the introduction, the hype around spot ETFs has gradually dissipated. Indeed, at the beginning of the year, it was not uncommon to experience days exceeding $600 million in admissions. Since March, there has been only one day - June 3 - with entries that have exceeded this threshold:
Evolution of entries and exits on spot Bitcoin ETFs. Source: Coinglass
Institutional actors are clearly absent during the summer, and hope that they will be back with the start of September. Since the beginning of August, there have been $66 million in outlets on these new crypto investment products.
BTC is hesitating, but operators are accumulating again
The price of the crypto king quickly recovered after a flash crash that brought the price down to $49,050. Indeed, the price has risen by about 25% since the last low. After clearly distributing at the market top level (yellow), what are operators currently doing? In an attempt to answer this question, Glassnode analysts shared the Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) indicator in a weekly on-chain report.
In concrete terms, when the indicator is close to 1 (dark purple), market players accumulate. Otherwise, the closer the indicator is to 0 (yellow), the more intense the distribution. Here is the graph of the indicator since 2019:
Accumulation Trend Score. Source: Glassnode
From January to March 2024, traders accumulated strongly in view of the launch of ETFs. Then, seeing that BTC was difficult to exceed $70,000, a distribution was set up. This has led to the fall below $50,000, but now, operators are again buying BTC. Nevertheless, it is important to remember that this behavior does not always lead to a soar in prices. According to the ATS, there was accumulation at the end of 2021, and yet, it was the beginning of the bear market...
Volatility to come on the Bitcoin price?
For 15 days now, the king of cryptocurrencies has been blocking against resistance at $61,000 and bearish institutional bias (EMA 9/EMA 18). This is a very important level to resume for BTC, because the price has for the moment lost the range between $61,000 and $70,000:
Bitcoin price against the dollar (1D)
If resistance is taken up as a support, the king of crypto could again register significant volatility. And this could happen in September, with a course that could then join the resistance at $70,000. Attention, with the recent fragility observed on $BTC , sellers have the opportunity to regain control and bring the price around the support to $51,500. In any case, volatility should return very quickly to the crypto market! The RSI momentum indicator must continue to rebound to develop beyond 68. This would make it possible to find a bullish moment on a daily say.
On investment products such as spot ETFs, investors are absent. As the start of the school year approaches, capital is clearly not flowing massively towards these investment products. On the other hand, according to Glassnode data, an accumulation has again been set up on BTC. Technically, the price is oscilating around resistance at $61,000, and this threshold would have to be broken to hope for a new wave of increase towards $70,000. And for altcoins that are already fragile, the course should not be rejected here.
THE NEWS OF BITCOIN THAT MATTERS
Bitcoin has been losing its superb since March, and it may soon show less performance than that of the NASDAQ.
El Salvador trains 80,000 civil servants to integrate Bitcoin and new technologies to modernize the administration.
The Malaysian authorities destroyed 985 BTC mining machines, worth $452,500, to combat electricity theft.
As in the last bull run of 2019-2021, will Bitcoin experience a two-phase bull market? If this is the case, a return to $37,000 is possible.
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